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Bankroll size: too many variables for a "magic" n

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Bankroll size: too many variables for a "magic" n

Postby AdamtheExpert » Tue Nov 09, 2004 1:17 am

Gee, I guess I should have taken Ice's offer of my own section, more seriously. Now, I'm sadly relegated to posting, like any other mortal. Shame. Oh well, the topic for today is: Variables that influence bankroll size.

Adam the Expert is MADDENED by any stooge attempting to teach people that they can survive, with a "300BB" bankroll. This amount, is an absolute JOKE, and does not take into account, any of the factors that influence the proper bankroll amount.

In order to know how much you'll need, for long-term survival in poker, YOu need to know several things:

(1) Goal. Part time pro. full time pro. long term financial goal with NO removal of ANY
profit.

(2) Other income coming in: Full bills or "nut" income Half bills income NO OTHER INCOME

(3) Action level in the games you play. Wild games will show a better long-term profit,
but require much more money.

(4) Bets allowed in the games you play. Some casinos offer a bet and FOUR raises, instead of the conventional three raises. You need much more bankroll, to play these games.

(5) Ease to develop a new bankroll, if you bust out. If you have 50,000 bucks in easliy
negotiable coins, and are playing ten twenty, then you can start with a small amount,
since you can always cash in

(6) skill level of the player. (Be honest) A player of higher skill, can have a smaller bankroll, since they will make more dollars per hour, and thus have a larger amount to devote to bankroll increase.


My friends, please do NOT attempt to do what BLADE did. Quitting your job, is about a 99.9% ticket to poker financial suicide. This is NOT to pick on Blade. At least he had GUTS. But, he set a poor example. Unless you have a HUGE banroll (1000BB) and sufficiently low living expenese, that you can devote a FULL 50% of your wins to bankroll increase, PLEASE do not attempt this.

ATE has nothing the gain, from giving you bogus information. So, the only other thing to look at is: Do I know what I'm talking about? Well, I think that's been established, or ICE would not have offered my own section

Here's the likely scenerio, if you attempt to make a full time living, with only 300 bb, and no money coming in.


Month one, doing ok, made 4200 playing 10-20. Rent 850, car 350 food 400 insurance 200 all other expenses 1500 total: 3300. Bankroll now at 6900

Month two. didn't do so well, only made 3300, and needed new transmission costing 900 total expenses 4200. Bankroll now back to 6000

Month three. Got my ass kicked the first week, lost 1500. Was so chicken, that dropped down to 5-10. Managed to end up month at plus 1200. Expenses 3300
bankroll now down to 3900

Month four: Got roommate, so that cuts bills down to 2700. still playing at the 5-10 level, but only made 2600 Bankroll now down to 3800

Month five: won tournament, and made 4700 for month, but had to have two root canals, at 800 each bankroll now at 4400

Month six. Roomate stole computer, was out of action for three days. Made only 3000, and had to spend 800 on new computer. Rent now back up to 850

Ok, you get the message.

Maybe some of you just laughed at my little scenerio here. BUT IT'S THE TRUTH. All of you know how much it takes to live in the real world.

I'm telling you, 1000bb is the MINIMUM to play at the 10-20 level. Even then, you should also have a seperate account, for your living expenses.

The most successful people in poker, either start with a HUGE bankroll, or they have other money coming in.

the less pressure for you to win, the more of a chance you have.


Poker is the world's most impossible full time job, but the worl'ds best PART TIME BUSINESS.
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Postby McMonkey » Tue Nov 09, 2004 9:08 am

I think the advice given is very good, and hopefully worded strongly enough to get people's attention. I know few full-time gamblers (blackjack counters and poker players) but each of them says A) they were extremely lucky to survive as long as they did given what they started with, and would probably be making more now if they had had the patience to wait for a larger starting bankroll and B) playing full-time has taken a lot of the fun and thrill of the game away for them.

I love playing poker, but I know I wouldn't have the discipline and stomach necessary to go and put my hours in at the casino every day. I don't see the allure of playing poker to survive and pay the bills as a sole source of income. Being independently wealthy and travelling the world to play big tournaments and lucrative side games is another story..... :)
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Postby iceman5 » Tue Nov 09, 2004 11:07 am

Adam, that is an excellent post and sounds like it comes from experience. If you continue to post like this and spread your wealth of poker knowledge without the other non-sense, my offer will be re-opened.
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A few words, about the "nonsense"

Postby AdamtheExpert » Wed Nov 10, 2004 11:09 pm

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Postby iceman5 » Thu Nov 11, 2004 12:08 am

We are going to be much more dilligent in moderating the message boards than some other sites. Personal attacks wont be tolerated by anyone.
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Postby Molina » Thu Nov 11, 2004 12:23 am

Adam,

Regarding the number of BB's, what would you advocate for NLHE where the buyins were 100xBB, I'm curious as to your opinion, I'm running on 34 buyins at the moment and have never been down more than 6 buyins at a time so this seems very comfortable. Plus I also have a few poker accounts with bits of cash in, mainly for when I fancy a bit of Omaha or S'nG's.

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Postby iceman5 » Thu Nov 11, 2004 8:34 am

The general rule of thumb for NL is 20 buy ins, but the higher stakes you play the more buy ins you need.
If youre playing $10 NL and have $200 thats fine. If you go broke, most people could easily take another $200 out of the non poker income and start over.
Its going to be alot tougher to come up with $8000 if you lose your 20 buy ins playing $400 NL, so you probably want more.
Also, if you are playing for a living, youre not going to be able to come up with anywhere near that kind of money if you go broke.
30-40 buy ins is much better for the serious, but not necessarily full time player.
Also, dont forget that just because you have $10000, that doesnt mean you are have any business playing $400 NL if you cant beat the game.
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Postby Martine23 » Fri Nov 12, 2004 7:06 pm

Great post Adam. Always enjoyed the no nonsense posts.
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Molina, sorry it took so long

Postby AdamtheExpert » Thu Dec 09, 2004 7:48 am

Hey, sometimes I write an article and forget about it.

Sorry for the month wait.

Anyway, I would tend to disagree with the Iceman, and feel that 30 buy ins, give one a much better cushion, both financially and phycologically.

But,. actually, that is for limit. When you can lose your whole stack, at once, I would be much happier, with 40 to 50 buy ins.

But again, that depends on your goal: If you have a regualar job or business, and do not NEED to win at poker to survive, you can have a much smaller bankroll.

IF . . . . . . . . .


You are WILLING and ABLE, to drop back down, when you lose, say 1/4 to 1/3 of your bankroll.

Many people, do just the opposite, and this is FATAL!!!


"oh my, I had 2000, and now I'm down to 1400" "I guess I'll just take a seat in this nice little 30-60 game, and just let me win ONE pot, then I'll be outta there"


Hey, don't frown, just drop back down"
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wow

Postby AdamtheExpert » Thu Dec 23, 2004 7:53 am

Just read this again, My how this was a GENIUS article.
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Postby Namkce » Sat Jan 08, 2005 1:04 am

Good post. I like it. BTW, Adam, what do you think about my bankroll challenge? Am I doing the right thing? (you can find the link in my "Namkce Bankroll Challenge" message)
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Namkce

Postby AdamtheExpert » Sun Jan 09, 2005 3:42 am

Could you please be more specific? I don't know where this post you mention is.


By the way maybe you have missed this but


PLEASE ASK QUESTIONS OF ME, IN A NEW THREAD IN MY SECTION.

I do not always look up responese to old posts. Asking a question in a new thread, gives you an 98% chance of an answer

Only those questions that seek my TOP SECRET tricks will not get an answer.

However, they will get a RESPONSE.
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here's that link, Adam.

Postby Namkce » Mon Jan 10, 2005 3:40 am

Well, here's the link. I am just extra careful about posting links, because I don't want to considered as a spamer.

http://www2.uwsuper.edu/reckman/poker

I'll remember next time to respond to you in your own forum.

Also, I notice you're in Minnesota... Do you ever play at Black Bear Casino (Cloquet) and Fondulac Casino (Duluth)?
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One link, does not a spammer make

Postby AdamtheExpert » Mon Jan 10, 2005 9:42 am

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AHA!

Postby AdamtheExpert » Mon Jan 10, 2005 9:57 am

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