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Good spot for a semi-bluff??

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Good spot for a semi-bluff??

Postby stickdude » Wed Dec 06, 2006 12:35 am

Literally the very first hand of the session...

Poker Stars
Limit Holdem Ring game
Limit: $0.50/$1
6 players


Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is BB with [9d] [8s]
UTG calls, UTG+1 raises, CO calls, 2 folds, Hero calls, UTG calls.

Flop: [Jd] [3s] [7h] (8.5SB, 4 players)
Hero checks, UTG checks, UTG+1 bets, CO folds, Hero calls, UTG folds.

With that many people seeing the flop, I've got odds to peel one off with a gutshot draw

Turn: [6d] (5.25BB, 2 players)
Hero checks, UTG+1 bets, Hero raises

Hmm... Picked up the good end of an OESD, and it's heads-up. If he's betting overcards here, a c/r should get him to fold...

Like? Dislike?
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Postby Danhdan » Wed Dec 06, 2006 1:00 am

I like it alot...which probably makes it evil and wrong. :D

The only problem is that villian might be tempted to look you up here because LHE players, it's what they do.
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Postby antneye » Wed Dec 06, 2006 7:23 am

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Postby Pok 7's » Wed Dec 06, 2006 10:11 am

If your opponent is capable of laying down a hand, then I don't mind it. However it's unlikely at most of the lower stakes. If he has absoloutely no part of that board he might fold assuming both of his cards are lower than a J. Chances are if he's holding any A,K,or Q he's going to the SD anyway to see if one hits for TP he'll probably do the same if he's holding any PP. All of which can be possible since he was the PF raiser. Overall I think it's more spewing than anything IMO to be honest, although we understand what you're trying to do 99.5% of the players out there won't..... and if he does happen have a hand we still need help so why pay more to draw? The only thing you're getting rid of is if he's on a stone cold bluff with 2 total rags and even if that's what he holds he still might not fold anyway.
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Postby stickdude » Wed Dec 06, 2006 12:51 pm

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Postby antneye » Wed Dec 06, 2006 1:37 pm

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Postby Pok 7's » Wed Dec 06, 2006 1:52 pm

How did he respond to our CR? If he just called we may have a shot, 3 bet and we're in trouble.

Again without playing a single hand against villian it's hard to really know. We've all seen people who will go to the SD with AK or AQ or less at times (as surely some of us have ourselves :oops: ).

The main problem I see is we don't know a thing about our opponent (our only real advantage here is he dosen't know us either which might actually help us) But, some will fold like a cheap lawnchair here, others won't. Plus we're not talking about a big pot either that we really need to go after. While I will agree when moves like this work it is pretty satisfying but, we can wind up taking more of a risk than we need for an average or even less than average reward.

Now don't get me wrong Stick, I don't hate the move... I've attempted similar and/or worse ones myself at times :oops: . However knowing how you've been running, I might be leaning more in the side of caution. We're basically entering the FPS zone here which we all know how that tends to work out. :wink: So part of me is wondering if things like this might have a slight impact on your recent run.
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Postby stickdude » Wed Dec 06, 2006 2:16 pm

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Postby Pok 7's » Wed Dec 06, 2006 2:38 pm

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Postby stickdude » Wed Dec 06, 2006 6:37 pm

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Postby antneye » Wed Dec 06, 2006 7:41 pm

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Postby DonkiFornication » Wed Dec 06, 2006 9:00 pm

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Postby Calaziar » Wed Dec 06, 2006 11:02 pm

You're laying him a little over 8:1 plus IO to call your raise. If he's ahead (and I'd be very surprised if he isn't) it's correct for him to RR you. In any case since 2 overs are priced in whether you bet or not you are making a semi-bluff into a hand where you probably are at best a 5:1 dog and where it is correct for him to reraise with as little as A ,K,Q, or even T high! If he also happens to be suited your effective outs go to 6 and he is even further ahead. The only pluses I see for the raise are you will win an extra bet or two if you hit and aren't counterfeited, there is always the chance he folds,you may get a cheap showdown(sometimes valuable, but not here, see the next paragraph for why) and your raise may keep him from making the best play (RR) but I don't believe those factors make this a +EV move for you over a simple call.

Yes you can take another shot on the river, but if you miss you almost have to bet and hope you don't get called or RR to have any shot at winning; but then calling is so cheap compared to the pot size (that you have increased!) that the villain won't have to be correct more than one time in 10 or 11 to break even on the call. This is the real curse of small bet limit poker; there are times when no matter what you do the chances of your opponent making a mistake (using Sklansky's fundamental theorem of poker as the definition of 'mistake') are almost nil, so the value of this type of play in a fixed limit game is greatly reduced compared to NL or PL. The way you make that work for you here IMO is to take the correct odds the pot is laying you and call. Since you are getting better than 5:1 plus implied odds if you hit as well as closing the action it seems a pity to take risks when that course is clearly +EV in a LHE game. I hope it worked out for you.
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