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Hand Analysis - Reality check?

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Hand Analysis - Reality check?

Postby musicman80 » Sun Apr 03, 2005 3:54 pm

OK, so a long while ago I'd made my first BTP post on the SnG forums about getting past basic strategy. And I played at the $5 level for a while, and was doing OK (ITM > 33%, ~20 matches) ... until I hit the inevitable cold streak and lost all of my net winnings and then some. I decided to take a break from playing NL SnGs for a while, and decided I'd go back to my roots playing limit ring games... and I've been doing modestly well, I think. (Ultimately, my real goal has been to build a nice BR - $1k-$2k, and I'm finally trending slowly upward..) I only have ~2200 hands of data, playing mostly 1/2 and some 0.50/1, so maybe my stats aren't quite stable yet - and I guess I wanted a sanity check here to see that I did the right thing on this hand.

I'd been playing a lot of 6-max for a while today, and was doing only mediocre (just barely break-even), and helped start this full table game by playing someone heads-up for a bit, and didn't do great until the table quickly filled up. Anyway, here's the hand...

Thoughts?

Ultimate Bet 1/2 Hold'em (9 handed)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with [8h], [8c].
UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, 1 fold, MP3 calls, 2 folds, SB raises, BB calls, Hero calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, MP3 calls.

Flop: (12 SB) [7d], [3d], [8s] (6 players)
SB bets, BB folds, Hero raises, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, MP3 calls, SB calls.

Turn: (11 BB) [3s] (5 players)
SB bets, Hero raises, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, MP3 calls, SB calls, Hero 3-bets, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, SB calls.

River: (29 BB) [6s] (5 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, UTG+1 calls, MP1 raises, SB folds, Hero 3-bets, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls.

Final Pot: 38 BB

Results in white below:
Hero has 8h 8c (full house, eights full of threes).
UTG+1 has Ts Td (two pair, tens and threes).
MP1 has 7h 7s (full house, sevens full of threes).
MP3 has Ad 6c (two pair, sixes and threes).
Outcome: Hero wins 38 BB.
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Postby briachek » Sun Apr 03, 2005 4:01 pm

I think you played this hand fine. You put in a bet every street you could while still getting called by many people when you had the nuts, except for quads.

One thing I would like to question is the turn. According to the converter, SB bet, you raised, everyone called back to you where you were allowed to 3 bet. I feel poker should be changed like this, but just for me. If I have a great hand and got everyone to call, I want the option to put in another bet even though the action is closed. That would show those damn flush chasers!
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Postby TightWad » Sun Apr 03, 2005 4:03 pm

Damn, that's a nice pot! I think the only really questionable part was your UTG limp, but based on the amount of action you got on this hand, I think playing 88 UTG is probably fine at this table. I'm not actually sure what your question is on this hand; everything looks quite alright to me!

-TW
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Postby musicman80 » Sun Apr 03, 2005 11:30 pm

Brian - I looked over the hand history and realized that you probably happened on a bug in the hand history converter! What actually happened, per the hand history in PT, is something like this:

SB bets $2. Hero raises to $4. UTG+1 calls. MP1 calls. MP3 goes all-in for
$6. SB calls. Hero re-raises to $8.
UTG+1 calls. MP1 calls. SB calls.

So in fact, I did end up re-raising to the cap on the turn (not 3-betting, but putting in a full 4 bets).

TW - in response to your question - you're not even sure what my question was - I guess there were a couple of sticking points. First, the limp with the 88 - I don't often like limping UTG at all - I'd prefer to raise, and if I can't, I like to just slink away, especially with a middle pair like 8's. Obviously, it worked out pretty well for me this time - far beyond what I'd hoped to win off of this hand! But expectation-wise - is this a good play?

Second question - should I have called the raise pre-flop? There was one caller in front of me - and the basis for my call was the implied odds I was figuring to get based on calls behind me - which, again, in this case, I was correct about: no one folded behind me, so I was able to reduce my pot equity a bit.

Flop play was pretty straightforward - I had the nuts at that point, and so was going to play it pretty aggressively - and again, this worked well, because it caused the callers to make some huge mistakes (the 2-outer with the TT was particularly in dire straits, now). Also, I generally don't believe in slowplaying a flopped set, because usually it's so deceptive that people tend to mistake you for a maniac-type. So a bet/raise on the flop with a set like mine was definitely a good value bet.

But the third question I have is on the turn, which is where it got really expensive to stay in the game. The board paired 3's and so I definitely had the nut boat - but *not* the absolute nuts - someone who'd limped/called with 33 might be very excited at the moment, and I could be in for a real disaster against quad 3's. Should I have 4-bet it on the

I guess the whole setup into this hand is where my biggest question is... I'd been having quite a roller-coaster day (which, after the past week of solid net-plus sessions, was comparatively crappy), and was finally slowly on the upswing. I don't think I was really tilting much, but I felt like I wanted to be hyperaggressive on this hand, especially after it turned into a monster - but once I did that, I threw caution to the wind. Again, it obviously worked out amazingly for me (especially after the up-and-down earlier - I had swings of 30BB, which sent me from net-plus to net-minus and back...), but I guess I realized after the fact that I didn't really care or pay attention to anyone else's bets after I hit my set. This is what scares me - did I do the right thing here?

Also, another completely different question. Notice that the pre-flop raiser stuck it out all the way down to the river, where he refuses to put in two more big bets, when the pot is already up to 33 BB - that's 16.5-to-1 - granted, he probably knows he can't win at all - but this fold seemed really odd, considering he would have probably known he couldn't win on the turn. I guess what I'm saying is that I can't see what he would possibly be drawing to - any takers on what he had? Because the more I think about it, the less I'm able to put him on *anything*!!!

Anyway - thanks for the input, guys. It was certainly one of those amazing hands to talk about - but I did have some legitimate fears about my play after the fact, and I want to make sure that I didn't just get really really lucky. (Well, of course, I got 'lucky' but you know what I mean :) )
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Postby wolvish » Sun Apr 03, 2005 11:56 pm

To me the most amazing part of this hand is that MP3 called you down the whole way with A6o. With all that raising going on you think a guy with one over and a runner runner striaight/flush draw would throw it away. He even called three bets on the turn with only a single overcard that most fish would know was no good anyway. Whoever MP3 is, I hope you have him on PT so you can find him again in the future.
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Postby TightWad » Mon Apr 04, 2005 12:13 am

MusicMan,

Definitely some valid questions, but I do believe they probably spring from the wild day you had; oftentimes when I go through a crazy stretch, I find myself questioning far too many hands, whether I won or lost. But, at the same time, it's good that you did pick a hand that you won to analyze; we often dwell on our losses and don't realize that it's important to analyze winning hands too!

Okay, onto your specific questions. First off, 88 in EP is a very situational-dependant hand. I think it's rarely worth a raise, though at a super-tight table where you have a good image, it may be occasionally right. Normally, though, it's limp or fold. If you limp, it HAS to be because your read on the table is that you're likely to find yourself in a multiway, hopefully unraised pot. Based on the action of the hand, this seemed to be pretty much correct, so I like the limp.

As far as calling the raise, it is almost invariably correct to call one more bet after you've already limped a hand, because now you're getting significantly better odds. This is especially true for small/medium pairs. With this sorta multiway pot, you're basically hoping for a set, and even though you'd rather not pay two bets to see the flop, you're certainly getting great odds to call the raise and hope for an 8.

On the turn, the cap is definitely fine. Granted, you don't have the stone-cold nuts, but there's only one single card-combination that beats you, and plenty that you have beaten (that your opponents will still be willing to drive the action with) No matter who puts in the 3-bet, it's definitely far too soon to go into the shell and call, but in particular, note that MP3, the reraised, is now all-in. Therefore, even in the unlikely scenario that he does have you beaten, all future bets will go into a side-pot that belongs to you. All the more reason to cap it!

Any time I flop a set, I'm going to play it hard; all the more-so if I fill up. There are some situations where I'll slow down, but that's almost exclusively if I have bottom set or an under-full, and my opponent refuses to back off. But with the nut full house in a capped limit game, I think you're best off never taking your foot off the gas pedal unless you have an extremely solid read that you're beaten.

Just my thoughts, and once again...DAMN, that's a big pot! :D

-TW
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Postby briachek » Mon Apr 04, 2005 11:59 am

Brian [Js][9s]
Anyone who gets in a fair fight, has no tactical skills.
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Postby Felonius_Monk » Mon Apr 04, 2005 6:34 pm

The Monkman J[c]

"Informer, you no say daddy me snow me Ill go blame,
A licky boom boom down.
Detective mon said daddy me snow me stab someone down the lane,
A licky boom boom down." - Snow, 1993
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Postby briachek » Mon Apr 04, 2005 6:44 pm

Brian [Js][9s]
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