by growlers » Tue Nov 21, 2006 3:05 pm
You say he "almost certainly" will raise it. The vast majority of low limit players will not raise this when you bet out with AK KQ. WE ON THIS FORUM might do that, but just by the nature that we are discussing hands on a forum, we are better and more aggressivle than 95% of players, and I am not sure that everyone on this forum would raise with AK here.
Assuming he does not have an overpair, there is maybe a 20% chance he folds (if he raised preflop with total trash to steal), maybe a 70% chance he calls, and maybe a 10% chance he raises with just two overcards. Of course if he just calls, then the hand is easy - we lead the turn, fold to a raise unimproved, and probably check/cal river to pick off a bluff. So I argue that looking at his range, he is not raising here close to a majority of the time.
But back to the question at hand - there is no way I call if he raises. I either three bet [and fold to a cap (definite overpair if he caps)] or fold right there. I think calling is bad. You have very few outs and it is early in the hand - you don't want to go into call-down mode here. So this is where reads come in. Since he is shortstacked, that increases the chances he is raising with air so would be more inclined to threebet - against a nonagressive player I fold right there since you have few outs and a nonaggressive player is much less likely to be raising with air.
You bet out - you've got new information if he raises - you have to use this information and try to save bets when you:
1) have a mediocre hand
2) you are out of position
3) it is early in the hand
4) you have few outs to improve and they are somewhat tainted (he might have A10 K10 Q10)
Last edited by
growlers on Tue Nov 21, 2006 3:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.