TW - not that I have the experience you or some of the others have. But I'll throw in my $0.02 anyway, and see whether or not *I'm* on target here.
First off - I think CO really stuck his neck out on a limb cold-calling a raise with his 89s. To me, suited connectors are great to play from position - but not if you have to call two bets cold when there aren't that many people in the pot. That being said, I know nothing about table texture here, so it's entirely possible he read the table as being a bit loose or something - who knows. His cold-call on the flop wasn't great, granted, but as far as he knew, he had top pair ... seems weak to me, but again, who knows what he was thinking.
Anyway - your preflop play ... to be honest, when I first looked at your post, I totally agreed with you - that extra raise just seems a bit too costly and unlikely to make anyone go away. But the more I thought about it, I couldn't find a good reason *not* to 3-bet it - if the other folks didn't go away, you'd know to probably make a quick exit on the flop, and would be safely done with it. From my understanding, TT is a hand that really needs to be protected, because of the great likelihood of someone else catching up or beating you, even if all they have are weak overcards. So you're best off trying to play isolated, heads-up, if you can get away with it. Problem is, in this situation, I'm not sure it would have made CO go away, but if he didn't, then hey - so what? You have got to fear the worst, and if he comes out strong on the flop, you should be ready to ditch it. Am I wrong here?
Flop - well, things are definitely looking good, since you've got an overpair. MP3 bets out, you've gotta raise, I think that's pretty much standard fare. FWIW, looking at his flop play, it smells like he had overcards, maybe a strong ace like AQ. It's *possible* he had a mid pair (maybe 77 thru 44), but that doesn't seem too justified by how he played preflop.
Turn - OK, you've made it this far, and the board pairs. I hate it when that happens! I dunno - I could see it both ways - bet out, and if he check-raises you, you've gotta think he's hit his set, and you can just ditch. Or, maybe you check, because you're scared the board paired, and then he can only make one bet, and then you can decide whether or not he hit his pair. The real pickle, here, is that he is almost certainly in a great position to slow-play you. If you check, he checks (which is exactly what he did) ... but then, if you'd bet? He would have probably just called your bet, leaving you in the same situation on the river. So I'm not sure there's much you could have done. I would have probably checked it here, just like you did.
River - Hrm ... so now you've got to decide whether to check behind him or lead out. I'd still be a bit scared by the paired 8, but I'd have to lead out here, thinking my TT is still good (he checked the river!). So I'm not sure I mind the bet. But the question is, do I call him down after the sorry sack check-raises me? You've basically got to be better than 91% sure that he's hit his 8's. I'm not sure what kind of read you'd had on him, but I'd only lay it down if you were all but absolutely sure that he was holding the third 8. You have to also consider that he had some kind of big cards, and he knew he wasn't going to hit them by the turn, so he figured he could sucker you into a check-raise on the river, if he still hadn't improved. To me, this seems like there's plenty of doubt, and if there was any kind of doubt at all as to his intentions, you played it correctly - losing one bet once in a while versus winning 10.25 is the question that comes to mind, and it seems like it'd be a much bigger leak, in the long run, to consistently lay down these situations, instead of only folding based on a
solid read.
OK, so the only key point here - preflop, the 3-bet would have definitely been a good idea, because it would have represented greater strength, for sure. I've got a good feeling that if you'd done this, MP2 would have probably folded, MP3 would have reraised, and 3 bets (at least) to see a flop seems really quite pricey. To continue here would have not been correct. Of course, if he did, you'd probably end up losing the pot anyway, because either he'd call you down if the pot remained small (because that's what he was going to do anyway), or he'd have the odds to call you down if the pot was big. But it would have forced a bigger decision on him pre-flop, and it seems like that would have been a better move.
Well, that's my analysis - please pick it apart and find the zillion holes in my logic!
