Hi folks,

This topic is about a play I've seen a lot of over the course of my online wannabe-career, and I believe I've finally figured out what it usually means. Here's the set-up: you're in a heads-up or shorthanded pot; your opponent bets the flop, you raise, he calls. Now, the turn produces a SCARY CARD! Generally a flush card, or pairing the board, and your opponent leads out betting! Is he on a pure bluff, or did he just hit his hand? You find yourself confused, scared, and utterly unable to cope with this sudden display of aggression! At least, if you're like I used to be, that's how you find yourself. So, you back down and call. And by backing down, you're losing a lot of value!

Because in the vast majority of hands where I've seen my opponent do this, it's neither a bluff or a suddenly-made-hand; it's the same hand that was strong enough to bet the flop, not strong enough to reraise you, but now your opponent is hoping the scare card will get you to back down, combined with the possibility his hand is good. That sounds kinda nebulous, so I'm going to give a few examples.

Example 1: I'm on the button with 9-7 sooooted, it folds to me, and I raise. I know most of you fold here, and you're probably right, but I'm a LAGgy moron, so of course, I happilty raise! The BB calls, and the flop comes 9-2-2. BB bets, I raise, he calls. The turn is a 7, but wait! He bets again! Was he slow-playing a 2, or is he outright bluffing?

Neither. My opponent had 9-3, for top-pair, crap kicker. I raised him, and he payed my two pair off. Previously, I'd back down and call here, but an opponent with a 2 is almost never going to play it like this; but if he's bluffing, he's not likely to play this way either, so you extract maximum value by continuing to play hard.

Example 2: I'm on the CO with AJ, and limp after 3 others. The flops comes up A-T-5, two hearts (I have Ah). Checks to the opponent before me, who bets, and I raise, folding the field. He calls, and the turn comes 2h, putting three hearts out. Sure enough, he bets right into me. I raise, he calls, I bet the river and he calls down with his A-3, no hearts.

This one's a little less clear-cut; opponents who've just made a flush might be a bit more likely to bet out than to go CR; nevertheless, because of my raise on the flop, I still think that most of the time, a made flush will try to check-raise here. The Ah was a nice back-up for me, but nevertheless, I managed to get an extra bet out by raising the turn, simply because I've seen this type of thing so many times before.

Example 3: I'm UTG with KK; I open-raise, folds all the way to the BB who calls. The flop comes J-7-3, he checks, I bet, he calls. The turn is another 3, and now he bets; if I thought he was bluffing, I should call here, so as to induce another river bluff rather than fold him off. But, instead I raise, he calls, and he calls my river bet with his Q-7.

There are numerous others, but the gist is that these sudden-lead-out bets can usually be described as follows: the opponent DOES have a hand, is NOT on a straight bluff, and did NOT make the hand that the scare-card suggests. So if you think you were ahead on the flop, maintain the lead with a raise, and most of the time, it'll make you an extra bet.

Feel free to rip me apart!

-TW

Hey some good thoughts. I will try to watch for this in my play as well. Has anybody else noticed this pattern?

Just hope he doesn't catch you trying to push a unimproved AK and then know he at least has something to be betting out at you.