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Stat analysis...

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Stat analysis...

Postby musicman80 » Sat May 21, 2005 8:23 pm

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Postby piersmajestyk » Sat May 21, 2005 10:35 pm

On the surface everything seems within working order. The one thing I do notice is that you probably enter too many hands from the small blind. There is no way to maintain a 4 BB/100 win rate. If you can maintain a 2 BB/100 win rate over any significant amount of hands (15-20K or so) then you are probably doing some good things. Good luck.
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Postby musicman80 » Sun May 22, 2005 12:41 am

piers,

I'd noticed my VP$SB was a bit high as well, and so I've been working hard to not try and limp just to see a flop. Any ideas on what a "good" number is for this stat?
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Postby piersmajestyk » Sun May 22, 2005 8:16 am

I don't know what a good number is but I can tell you what mine is after 46K hands at 12 limit (VIP 10.79%, VP$SB 15.72%). As you can see I play much tighter than most folks. In my opinion if you play well after the flop you could have something like VIP 14-18% and a VP$SB of probably 22-25%. Just because it's only 0.50 more doesn't justify entering many more pots than you would UTG. The hands I will be able to play more often for here compared to UTG are the small pairs.
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Postby Nortonesque » Sun May 22, 2005 11:40 am

Musicman -- those numbers look pretty good to me. 2-3BB/100 is exactly where a good player should expect themselves to be at the lower limits.

SSHE advises you to play anything that you'd play from late position plus any two suited cards (they are assuming loose/passive games of course). Personally I don't like to play things like KTo out of position, but I will play most of the other things I limp with in LP. If there are 4 limpers I'll play any two suited -- 11:1 is way too good a price to pass up. I find myself around 25%.

Of course if you find yourself in a 1/3 or 2/3 blind structure, you have to adjust accordingly.
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Postby Tiburon » Mon May 23, 2005 5:54 pm

To back up piers, his philosophy is to ony play those hands in the SB that you would play UTG, particularly when other players have entered the pot, or the pot is raised. I've been heading more toward that (my VP$IP SB is about 27%), and it's not a bad way to play.

Touche as to SSHE's guidelines. Both are "right." It's what you feel comfortable with, but when you "play for half price" in the SB with junk and don't hit the flop, remember that it's just another SB you've given away.

As for your numbers, they're quality. Don't give away so many SB's, and your win rate may increase!

Good luck!
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Postby musicman80 » Mon May 23, 2005 7:03 pm

re: Ed Miller vs. Piers :D

My initial pre-flop selection strategy for SB was to play just about any two suited and other weak draws, especially in a multiway pot, as guided in SSHE. But as I started to do this, I realized that there doesn't seem to be much as much value in this, because of the positional disadvantage postflop - so if you miss the flop, you sit there like a gimp and check/fold, usually. Which means that it really is just a wasted bet - and I'm sure those wasted bets add up over time. So I've steered myself more into the Piers school of thought on this one - although I might do some experimentation and try and play some of the slightly-stronger draws, like a modest suited ace (A7s and up), in multiway pots with at least 3 limpers.

I suppose on tables with consistently weak-loose pre-flop action (say, 6+ limpers), you'd be pretty stupid to not toss in that extra 0.25 BB - but even then, I'm not sure I like Miller's "any two" rule. But hey, that's just me...
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Postby Tiburon » Tue May 31, 2005 1:29 pm

I'm going to be writing a post to my blog today or tomorrow basically showing how many players are playing any two suited cards from any position.

The real bitch is that these are the folks I lose to when their 95s flops two pairs to my TPTK with AKs, or they hit their 9-high flush because they flopped the draw and couldn't let it go.

What many players don't realize is that playing ATS (any two suited) out of position is doing nothing but wasting a bet. In a true multi-way pot, it's not a -EV play necessarily, but you have to realize that missing the flop means a definite fold out of position...

EDIT: And piers kicks a lot of ass at the tables, so he musn't be too wrong.

:D
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