PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (9 handed)

SB ($18.25)
BB ($11.95)
UTG ($15)
Hero ($61.15)
MP1 ($47.15)
MP2 ($18.30)
MP3 (villan)/ ($29.50)
CO ($52.35)
Button ($48.50)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with , .
1 fold, Hero calls $0.50, 1 fold, MP2 raises to $1, MP3 (villan)/ calls $1, 3 folds, BB calls $0.50, Hero calls $0.50.

Flop: ($4.25) , , (4 players)
BB bets $0.5, Hero raises to $2.5, MP2 calls $2.50, villan raises to $16

???

When I first saw this hand I thought it was an easy all in. I would still go all in but now I think it's close. You dont have any folding equity, but are only a big dog if someone has a bigger flush draw.

Against a set you will win 40% of the time. Against two pair its 48%. Against AT it's 55%. [8c] and the chance of winning is only 23%.
But there is already some money in the pot. You risk $26 to win $35.25 (there is rake). If you win more than 42% of the time the play is +EV. I think you win more than that

If MP2 has a bigger flush draw and decides he wants to gamble you are in bad shape. If he has a made hand and wants to come along it's good.

With a big draw you want to be the one who goes all in. Unfortunately villain potcommited himself and you dont have any folding equity.

All in all: to go all in is high variance but still slightly EV.

Well, Kalle's certainly right regarding the odds.

The rather strange thing is villain's off-the-chart bet (by the way, I think you should have raised harder on the flop). The good thing is, however, that he's somewhat short-stacked. It's kind of a strange bet on his part for a set, but AcXc doesn't seem completely out of the question.

Does anyone like flat calling in the hope that someone else will come along for the ride? I think I'd either go with that or pushing, but the size of villain's bet has me a bit confused here. If someone else comes along, I'm rather hoping you might get some kind of side pot going.

I am super confused by the size of that bet. to me that reeks of two pair, but on that board I don't see how unless he called the min raise with T 8, or he has a set and is scared of all the draws.

I think I push it in here. You have just about ever draw in the book.

Push push push!!

You should NOT call to let someone in. The only person that would stay would be a better flush draw, and you want him OUT.

NH