My favorite live $200 NLHE game. Blinds 3,2,2. 3 to go (should be 6 IMO).

I am in the CO seat with $680, BTN has about $320 or so.

I have in the CO seat. 6 limpers and I limp, BTN limps. Pot $20.

Flop .

All check to me and I decide to try and take the pot with a $30 bet.

BTN re-raises me to $90.

Pot has $140 and it cost me $60 to call. I mull it over looking over his stack to see how much to see the river. He thinks I might go all-in.

Background. 3 hours into the game. I have been beating him so he knows that I have some kind of a hand and that I am not on a steal. His most likely holding is a set. I was not sure at the time but either he flopped a straight or has a set - $90 bet. He is not on a flush draw.

Discounting the top pair I have 14 outs. 2.36-1 to hit my hand on the Turn. My current pot odds are 2.33. Cardplayer puts my odds at 37% on the flop.

If he has a set and I hit my straight or flush on the turn then I will get the rest of his stack for sure 80% of the time - he has 6 outs to a FH if he has top set of T's. I know he will call my all-in on the turn is a spade or a 9 hits.

Oh, what to do? Fold and give up my $30, call $60 or go all-in (not a good idea -I knew he will call and it kills my odds).

Please give me your ideas and I will let you know what happened. Since I am asking you might be able to guess that I either folded or called and missed.

Wow, with T7s what better flop are you looking for? If you are going to play hands like that, this IS the exact flop you want. (disregarding TTT, 777 etc) I am pushing all in 100% of the time here. The absolute worst could be that he flopped the straight and you are trailing like 57% vs 43% ish or he hit a set in which you are about 63% vs 37%. But this is if you reads are 100% right. Against a range of hands you are a favorite or a slight dog with a real good chance of busting him. I don't want to call and hit a blank on the turn and have to pay a giant amount on the turn, I think there is no other play but to push, folding is the worst calling is IMO almost as bad. Your reads will never be 100% correct. Even if he tells me he has a set I'm still 90% of the time pushing. I dont mean to stress this but this is the EXACT flop you want and a perfect situation to bust him. Shove those chips in.

Thanks Sham - That is the best flop I could hope for.

That was what I thought at first - just push it all in. After the hand a solid player said he would have been all in on the flop when re-raised. He said I had a monster draw.

This is what happened. Luckily, I made a good read. It did not look like he wanted to put all his chips in so I called.

The Turn was a blank. I checked and he bet $50 which gave me great odds to call the river. 5-1 pot odds for a 4-1 draw.

The pot had $300 abd he could bear to look at the river.

But, I missed. and we checked the river. The had Pocket 10's.

On the turn with a blank hitting, you are a 3:1 dog to hit on the river. Just more stupid info. Sucks you whiffed twice especially with HUGE implied odds, I dont see him folding top set here. Yet him betting $50 into a $200 pot with the 2nd nuts maybe you pick up a little betting pattern? He was asking you to bust him this hand too bad it didnt work out.

Thanks rdale. I have noted his betting habits for next time. Nice hand for you. Draws a tricky to play in NL as you know so any advice is welcomed.

Same table I go some nice chips when a player tried 2 draws against me and missed both of them. I have noticed that the players do not caculate the odds for a draw and are willing to take the worst of it for a lot of chips. At least where I play. I try hard not to do that, of course.

I think that I am done with draws in NL. What looked like a monster truned out to be 54% my favor. Not good for all my chips.

NLHE $200 buyin 3,2,2.

I am EP with and I open for $15 and get 4 callers.

The flop is which I love. I bet $30 and MP2 goes allin for almost $180. I have him coverd by $45.

I figure he had at best a set and at least 2 pair. I call and he shows for 2 pair.

I am a 54% favorite on the flop. Turn is a and have 4 more outs to a King and 3 more outs to a Q.

Any Ace, King, Queen, Jack or heart and I win.

I missed. I had pot odds because of the dead money but damn it ouched.

I'm not folding that hand come hell or high water. He made your job easier and shoveled it in for you. You picked 19 outs at the turn? That is nearly half the deck!

Here is another drawing hand. I have 54% chance to win since I know his hand.

I mucked but working out the EV after the fact I would win $13 on this hand if played over a long period, say 100 hands.

So who calls and who mucks?

EV= -(40*0.46)+(59*0.54)=13

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (9 handed)

UTG ($138.90)
UTG+1 ($263.45)
MP1 ($506.40)
Hero ($69.80)
MP3 ($143.40)
CO ($131.60)
Button ($246.70)
SB ($58)
BB ($48)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with , .
3 folds, Hero calls $2, 2 folds, Button calls $2, 1 fold, BB raises to $8, Hero calls $6, Button folds.

Flop: ($19) , , (2 players)
BB bets $40 (All-In), Hero folds.

Final Pot: $59

He had 77.

There is no reason to call there. A raise from the BB means big cards, at least to me.. Being out of position/raising means a big hand. I put him on at least AA - JJ and are about a 3:1 dog vs AA - JJ. You have to fold; you can't plan on him having an pair of 7s in this situation. Yet the shortstack does and overbet of the flop makes me a tad suspicicous. (spelling?)

Thanks - folding is your friend, I'm told.

I agree with Kent. I believe there are times to lay down coinflips in cash games, by coinflip I mean you are on the none made hand of a 2%-10% "edge".

When you don't know that you are a coinflip it is one thing, or the guy is half stacked and you hold AK preflop and he pushes into your raise. When you know that you figure to be a coinflip and there isn't any real overlay compared to stack sizes for you to take it, I think it negates using the true charm of NL, stacking your opponent as a decent favorite. Getting your money in as a real favorite, or even money with enough dead money in the middle to compensate for the half the time you miss or get outdrawn is where it is at.

Gambling it up on coinflips for fresh buy ins is just silly. If you are way up and it won't make a variance blur playing a big pot on a coinflip is great win or lose you will get more action later for better or worse depending on your style of play. It helps to removes the problem of being the huge stack and only getting play when you are beat syndrome.

I guess the real question is what is enough overlay to make it attractive? 10% seems too low, 20% or greater starts to sound appealing. Bigger stacks when no real fold equity pumps it up to 30%? But maybe I'm just thinking weak because I get burned more than my fair share on these, even if I wind up getting 3:2 or better at the turn when all the money goes in.