Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (10 handed)

MP1 ($406.2)
MP2 ($583.9)
Hero ($400)
CO ($394)
Button ($185.1)
SB ($97.65)
BB ($614.05)
UTG ($400)
UTG+1 ($775.6)
UTG+2 ($433.2)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with , . SB posts a blind of $2.
4 folds, MP2 raises to $14, Hero calls $14, 3 folds, BB calls $10.

Flop: ($44) , , (3 players)
BB checks, MP2 bets $25, Hero raises to $75, BB calls $75, MP2 raises to $175, Hero folds, BB calls $100.

MP2 is a fairly solid player but will over play big pairs. BB is straight forward
When the BB called the flop bet AND my raise I was fairly confident that he had a set, but it couldve been a lower flush draw I guess. Then MP2 reraised. He has any big pair here but probably has JJ since he underbet the flop originally. I think he would bet full pot with an overpair.

I almost pushed in because I think although I probably have 0 folding equity, I still like the EV of the play if they both call which i fully expected. I finally decided to fold though since I was 95% sure at least one of them had a set which I think puts me around break even EV. What do you think?

Why don't you smooth-call the flop and hope that BB comes along to give you better pot odds? I like the raise normally but given your read of MP2's hand (big pair), you certainly are not gonna get him off his big pair. Not only that, but since he is known to overplay his big pairs, he may very well pop you back, putting you at a tough decision. If you smooth-call, you still keep the pot relatively small, and if you miss you can get away without having lost a lot.

Anyway, for a $100 more I fold. Definately looks like a set is out, you only have 8 outs and even then they have redraws.

Yeah, thats another option. When he only bet $25 I thought he might have AK and I could take it right there so I raised. I wasnt planning on the BB calling the bet and raise.

They both had sets and the turn was the .

They got all in at the turn anyway even with the 3rd club there.

Damn!

I was 95% sure one had a set and wasnt surprised at all that they both did. I was so close to pushing in there you cant imagine.

I've seen this situation about four times in the past two days, here is how I'm dealing with it. Lately it seems when I'm taking too long and stalling, it is because I'm doing this particular math, reading the board three times to make sure I didn't miss any thing and taking their assumed hands into consideration especially if I won't have the nuts.

If I'm getting 3:1 on the flop, I call and a minimum of 4:1 on the turn to call. I figure this is break even when I miss or don't get implied odds. I'm counting on implied odds to make the call profitable long term.

If the opponents are particularly shallow I might raise all in on the flop with out odds and gamble it up in a low variance situation, to bolster the image that I will play for all the money with a draw. Really what is a 10-20% buy in? Their money in my stack will be appreciated more to run plays than the money I might lose and reload back to full.

If I think one of the yahoos will push and the other will call, I ignore how much I'm going to have to shove in the pot if I'm currently getting priced at 4:1 or better at the flop. I do not like being in this position at all, I grit my teeth every time I do this. Generally I consider it a big stack play and often won't take this approach with a fresh buy in, preferring to do it on other people's money.

But as you have stated at UPF I'm more adverse to variance than a lot of players, I think my logic on these types of situations is a decent balance between risk and reward I'm not a professional coin flipper, even money bets don't look good to me for even money, even money bets with an overlay or cushion are great.

"even money bets don't look good to me for even money, even money bets with an overlay or cushion are great."

I could not disagree more. If you are a profitible NL ring player, you should want to maximize your profit by having as big of a stack as possible. If that were the case, a true 50/50 bet to double your stack would be +EV.