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FD and gutshot NL200

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FD and gutshot NL200

Postby Monkey » Sat Feb 16, 2008 1:55 pm

villain is 35/21 over 100 hands. His flop agg factor is 2.8, so not high. I've seen him make plays that didn't seem consistent with anything, but haven't seen a hand showdown yet.

Full Tilt Poker, $1/$2 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 4 Players
-

SB: $398.50
BB: $170.60
UTG: $40
Hero (BTN): $373

UTG posts $2
Pre-Flop: [6d][5d] dealt to Hero (BTN)
UTG checks, Hero raises to $10, SB folds, BB calls $8, UTG folds

Flop: ($24) [9d][2d][3s] (2 Players)
BB checks, Hero bets $16, BB raises to $160.60 and is All-In

Best case is 12 clean outs, worst is 3 clean outs, so ditch it?
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Postby iceman5 » Sat Feb 16, 2008 2:09 pm

Yes...let him have it.
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Postby Xaston » Sat Feb 16, 2008 2:42 pm

How can you possibly only have 3 clean outs?
Boy, you got me confused with a man who repeats himself.
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Postby Triple B » Sat Feb 16, 2008 2:51 pm

Villain: Why?
Villain: How?
Me: I had a feeling
Villian: Sit in you cretin
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Postby Monkey » Sat Feb 16, 2008 2:54 pm

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Postby GodlikeRoy » Sat Feb 16, 2008 2:57 pm

Poker is silly.

It is not enough to be good at chess, you must also play well.

Somewhere in the world someone is training when you are not. When you race him, he will win.

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Postby Triple B » Sat Feb 16, 2008 3:02 pm

Villain: Why?
Villain: How?
Me: I had a feeling
Villian: Sit in you cretin
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Postby Monkey » Sat Feb 16, 2008 3:56 pm

Roy, BBB, I agree about the ranges, but this guy wasn't ABC so could have more stuff here. I thought at the time it was a fold, but I was surprised by what I got out of pokerstove which got me posting.

He showed [Qd][3d].
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Postby Triple B » Sat Feb 16, 2008 4:56 pm

Heh. I did include [Ad][3d] in his range but Q3 is pretty out there. I think a player like this is probably on a big draw here more often than not so the fold is pretty good. He probably slowplays a set or plays it more conventionally. You are in worse shape against this hand or other big diamond draws than you are against top set.
Villain: Why?
Villain: How?
Me: I had a feeling
Villian: Sit in you cretin
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