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Are my implied odds too good to fold here?

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Postby droqqa » Tue Jul 12, 2005 4:18 pm

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Sadly, the river was a total brick, I checked, and he moved in. Letting out a huge sigh, I then folded.

I am surprised by the number of the posts that doubts that this guy has AA, KK, or AK here. I was 100% sure of his holdings preflop. Making any agressive moves at this pot until I made my hand is a very bad move, IMO. I do not want to get moved off my draw.

If I did make my hand, I was just going to move in, and let the chips fall where they may. I didn't have much respect for my opponent (but then again, I rarely do), and felt that he would definitely call with AA or KK, and most likely call with AK. Only the top % of players, IMO, could make that laydown on the river. This guy just wasnt one of them.

D
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Postby iceman5 » Tue Jul 12, 2005 4:32 pm

I dont doubt for a second that he had AA, KK or AK.
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Postby kennyg » Tue Jul 12, 2005 4:35 pm

I did doubt it..until stone pointed out the mini raise preflop. That play, combined with his bets..point to AA, KK, or AK. I think there may be a small chance he has QQ....but that's what it is...just a very small chance. Not worth risking any money over.

I think the call was fine.
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Postby Aisthesis » Wed Jul 13, 2005 4:52 am

As to putting him on a hand: Any tight player clearly has AA, KK or AK in this situation.

But he's not a tight player. Ok, I wasn't sitting at the table with him, but let me review a hand I just saw tonight at 2/5 NL:

AQ, with a stack of about $700, raises to $25 in EP. MP re-raises to $100 with a stack of $400. EP comes over the top all-in. MP turns over QJ, flops a J but loses on the rivier to a straight.

I honestly don't exclude JTs in hearts from this guy's holdings--again, not having watched him play.

I also consider it borderline insane (or at least, no way I'm doing it) to play anything but AA, KK or AK the way he plays this hand, but I see it all the time. What he HAS done with the min raise is given him the info that you probably don't have AA or KK.

But one other thing that I would really hate to happen is to move in on the flush (without the paired board) only to get overflushed.

Anyhow, if you really can put the guy on AK, AA or KK, I think your turn call is good, as well-disguised as your hand is. But if he calls a raise with J5s, geez, I think there are a lot of hands that he might min-re-raise. The second question, of course, is how far he'll go with these kinds of hands. If he's more loose-passive, then it's less the min-re-raise than his play on the flop and the turn that would make the big holdings more likely.

Just one other issue: I don't consider those flush outs which pair the board to be outs at all. Nor am I really enthusiastic against a loose player about getting in that deep with the flush draw alone here (on the flop).

I don't know, as well-disguised as your hand is, it's awfully tempting to see the turn. But this hand really makes me think, yet again, that the flush draw on a suited connector just isn't something to go around calling a pot-sized flop bet with in this kind of situation--particularly against a loose player. If he's a loose muppet, then there are better spots. And if he's a more dangerous kind of LAG, then you could be in for a very unpleasant surprize even if you hit your flush.
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