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10/20 NL Bellagio Hand!

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10/20 NL Bellagio Hand!

Postby droqqa » Sat May 14, 2005 12:45 pm

No celebrites on night two, just a big hand that I thought I would post for some analysis. I have 3300 in front of me after buying in for 2000.

UTG posts a 40 dollar straddle. He has been doing this all night. He has 16000 in front of him. He likes to gamble a little, but can be a solid player. He likes to get trappy (thanks to this I didnt lose my stack with set-over-set against him on night one when I checked behind on the river - board A8524). Nonetheless, he will be a non-factor in this hand.

Table folds to me, I raise to 200 trying to take the pot down with the extra blinds with the [7h] [5h]. The button calls, and the rest fold. The button was a pro. I have seen him many times at the 10/20 NL. Very solid player - can make good laydowns, doesnt play crap, etc... He has me covered.

I'm not happy with the call, and think that I'm going to be through with the hand when....

Flop [7s] [5s] [4s]

I bet 300, button calls.

Turn [7s] [5s] [4s] [Jd]

I bet 800, button raises to 2000. I have 2000 left. What do I do?

Results later!

D
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Postby Mad Genius » Sat May 14, 2005 1:23 pm

Muck. I really think he has JsJx.
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Postby Longwyfrmlbc » Sat May 14, 2005 2:29 pm

yeah, I definitely think he has a set here with a raise on a non spade turn.
Solid but Angry Player: it's ok, in the long run your gonna make me a lot of money with bad play
Belligerent Outdrawer: how about i fly to where you live and kick your ass
Solid but Angry Player: what, are you going to outdraw me to death?
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Postby eliteprodigy » Sat May 14, 2005 3:02 pm

I push. By him smooth calling the flop, I assume he did not flop a set or he would of raised in fear of another spade to fall. He easily could be playing his AA with the A of spades like this or KK of spades like this. This is what I'm thinking on the flop. He wouldn't push the Aces or raise because he probably feels he can only improve on this flop, and he might not raise holding the king of spades because he realizes that if you have the ace of spades your likly to push over him on the flop anyways, he might decide to just call with these two hands.

Now on the turn I've changed my thought process slightly, adding AJ(unlikely for a pro but never know) with ace of spades into the mix and JJ into the mix. I don't see him calling the pf raise with two small spades or medium spades so I'm taking that flush out of the equation and he likely wouldn't raise that turn if he held the nut flush. If he has JJ i'm willing to lose my jack, I call and hope to see him trying to trap me pf with AA or KK.
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Postby rdale » Sat May 14, 2005 7:27 pm

I was thinking the same thing as elite. The smooth call reeks of AA with the good spade, he could have flopped the nuts though with AKs, I hate these situations for a bunch of money. Does he have enough gamble in him to call with 68s and is praying you have the nut flush or JJ? I think you have to let this go, but I wouldn't be happy doing it. I mean it sucks to fold when they have AJ, but the presence of the straight and the flush makes this hand super tough to play. You have shown nothing but strength and he comes over the top for your stack, even if you are worried about being outplayed later in your raised pots, you can call when not in such a bind to the board.

I was thinking you could talk yourself into a call by trying to play what he perceives your hand to be, but I think that would be a mistake here. The only way I think calling is semi-correct here is if he knows you are willing to make big laydowns and is capitolizing on previous weakness, I don't really imagine that is what is going on here.
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Postby poker2006 » Sun May 15, 2005 5:20 am

The 50NL I play is not comparable to this, but I'm curious why you are that aggr on the turn? The 3 flush cards should concern you, and given that you were called on the flop you have to be worried he might have the flush. I really hate to be aggressive with 3 flush cards on the flop, because if he comes over the top I'm left with a very tough decision.

In this case, even though it's very passive, I prefer to check or somehow keep the pot small and get to showdown with the 2 pairs. You might give a free card, but you might be against a flush for all you know and need 1 of 4 outs for the house. Maybe the way to play it at high stakes is different.
-- andyG [Ah]
I try to learn something new every day. Winning comes by itself.
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Postby droqqa » Sun May 15, 2005 9:27 am

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Postby HopyMSU » Sun May 15, 2005 11:19 am

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Postby eliteprodigy » Sun May 15, 2005 2:42 pm

results please droqqa
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Postby droqqa » Mon May 16, 2005 11:23 am

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Postby k3nt » Mon May 16, 2005 12:03 pm

Just curious -- how long is "what seemed like an eternity" in real time? Playing live, is there a limit to how long you're allowed to think it over in a big pot like this?

Awesome job. Wow.
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Postby droqqa » Mon May 16, 2005 12:59 pm

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