$1/$2 NL at Gaming Club

3 limpers and I limp on the button with [Th]. Both blinds play

6 to the flop. The pot is $12 and the flop comes [8h][5h]. I like it!

Blinds check and UTG bets $12. Folded to me and I raise to $24. Folded back to UTG who reraises to $100. I dont like it! He has another $100 behind and I have him covered. Whats you move? What do you put him on?

He is obviously beating you right now. I would say his range of hands is AK-AQ, A8, A5, 55, and 88. If he has one pair or two pair, you are a small dog to win the hand. If he has a set, then you are a fairly big dog to win the hand. Either way you only have very little invested in the hand, and it's clear that you have absolutely zero folding equity if you push. I fold this everytime. And if it just so happens that UTG is a crazy maniac who doesn't have anything here, I'm sure you'll find out soon enough and take his stack later.

I'm curious about your minraise though. Why didn't you just call there? I understand that you are building the pot but if you raise and UTG calls you, he's probably checking to you on the turn, whereas if you call him he's betting again on the turn. If you make your flush there you are probably getting more out of him, and if you don't, you can still semibluff the turn with a raise there. Not only that, but by raising you are potentially knocking out the blinds who could call with a worse flush draw or midpair/TPNK. If I raise there I would prefer to raise bigger so that I have a chance to win the pot right there. I just don't see people folding to minraises after they make a pot-sized bet.

I'm guessing he has the set/2pr there......So you have 11-14 outs ~44-56% if he has TPTK you have 14 outs and its a positive all in call....


This is VERY borderline IMO, curious how it turned out....

I hate all ins figuring Im going to have to make a draw....I'd probably drop it.

Well, you've given us nothing about the player's style - so I'm going to have to assume 88 is a possible hand - maybe even 55. However, AK, AQ, AJ are all possibilities as well, in my opinion - as would A8, or A5. 58 is out of the question.

That being said, you either have 9 outs (versus a set) or 12 outs (versus a bigger ace or two pair). With a cold read - I'm thinking it is more likely A8, 88 or A5 than anything else - so we'll say its a 50-50 shot (set vs. 2 pair). 50% of the time you have 9 outs; the other 50% - you have 12.

The pot is $148 with only $74 to call - so you are getting 2:1 to call. You are 9:38 to hit on the turn (or about 4:1 against) or 12:35 if you have 12 outs (3:1 against). That being said - you have to assume he'll push the rest of his stack on the turn. In this case, you are calling $174 to catch a $248 pot (1.43:1 odds). If you've only got 9 outs, you're only 2:1 against to hit by the river; if you've got twelve, you've got 1.22:1 to hit by the river.

Clearly, it matters whether you are in the 12 out situation or the 9 out situation - but it will be close regardless.

In any case, as to what I'd do - I'd probably push here. He may not have any folding equity - but if he does - this is my last chance of getting it. Also, if a heart does hit the turn - you might not get the rest of his stack. Calling would be a second option but I don't like it as much. Folding is a reasonable play if you are trying to reduce variance - because even if you are in the 12-out situation - it is a marginally profitable one.

Hope it came out well for you.

/d

Your "out" calculations are off Starstealer.
Against a set I have 7 outs.
Against 2 pair I have 12 outs
Against a bigger ace, I have 12 outs

Theres almost no chance Im ahead unless hes a complete idiot. I have no read on him at all so I have to assume Im behind.


MG, Ive has alot of success min raising the nut flush draw in position, but in this multiway pot, I think youre right. I need to call, or raise more on the flop.

I was almost positive he had a set, but pushed in anyways which I regretted as soon as I did it.

The poker gods must have been making up for my earlier KK vs AA hand though because the turn was an ace and the river was a ten. He had 55.

It was a dumb play on my part but it sure feels nice to do that to someone else for a change instead of the other way around.

starstealer

I'm gonna disagree with you and re-iterate a little bit of what I said earlier. First, we have to make an assumption that ice is behind here. I gave UTG's range of hands to be AK, AQ, A8, A5, 88, and 55. In retrospect, AA could actually be another one since UTG might have been going for the backraise preflop. Regardless, to simplify a bit, let's say UTG either has two pair or a set, since AK-AQ is very similar to A8/A5 in terms of the odds iceman will have, especially if the K/Q is a heart. So assuming there is a 50% chance of a set and 50% chance of twopair, that means 50% of the time iceman will win 30% of the time, and 50% of the time he will win 45%.

.30 * .50 + .45 * .50 = .375. That means iceman has 37.5% of winning the hand. Actually, it's a little less since I rounded the numbers up.

In the actual hand, he has to put in $176 to win back $412. That means he needs to win the hand over 43% of the time to make it +EV. I say $176 and not $76 because calling would be out of the question here. Clearly it's -EV to push assuming UTG has even a small chance of having a set and assuming iceman has little to no folding equity.

Well, it's nice to hear that you won the hand. I'm probably being influenced by the results but the more I think about it it does make more sense that he would have a set since AK is probably a raise preflop and A8/A5 are probably folds from most decent players in UTG.

All these times I read your posts and think "I wish i could be as good as Iceman" and then I read this one. I need to find a new mentor. JK.

It worked out well for you this time and you made some money for your mistake which is much better than people losing their stacks in order to learn. That guy must have been pissed.

Well, this happens every time I try to make my argument when I use rock solid numbers - and the funny thing is I've always considered myself pretty good at math...

In any case, Ice - I have to disagree about the set scenario. There are 9 hearts that make your hand better than a set - so I'm not sure how you've come up with 7 - so please let me know where I'm going wrong there.

MG - yes - I agree that ice is most likely behind here (barring a 1% moron overhead anyway), and I had said it would likely be 50-50 either 2 pair (or a bigger ace) or a set. That being said, you've finished up the calculations which incorporate both (whereas I only look at them separately...). In light of that - folding is much easier.

Also, if Ice was almost positive he had a set (and in terms of reads - I generally regard Ice as pretty good at them) then I would probably shift it closer to 75% of a set, 25% for 2 pair or bigger ace. In this case, it makes it a clear fold in all cases.

Anytime you have a flush draw agaisnt a set, you have 7 outs. 2 of the flush cards will always pair the board and give him a full house.

Hmmm... I feel really dumb here (mostly because I'm out of my element disagreeing with you...), but the board has two hearts and the ace of another suit. You have the ace of hearts - so which 2 hearts will pair the board?

well, one will depending on the turn. If the turn is a K for instance, the King of hearts will no longer be an out. But considering that you have the , I don't see how you don't have 8 heart outs if you consider the turn card as I mentioned.

briachek....i'll be your new mentor

Iceman..I would have raised to $32 there. I like to play hands like that very aggressively; givening me a good chance to win.

As for moving all-in I probably wouldn't have. Doyle can do that in his big stack games...but I can find more profitable situations on prima. glad you won though

cool, we can go to strip clubs!

Now Im confused. I guess its actually 8 outs in this case. Whatever card hits the turn can be paired as a flush card. Also, I could hit the flush and then he could hit quads.

I just ran the odds for the hand and I was a 30%-70% dog. 30% is about 7.5 outs.