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Calling potential bluffs

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Calling potential bluffs

Postby CocaCola » Mon May 16, 2005 2:04 am

hey im new to these forums, i got something pressing on my mind that i really want an answer to: Is calling down potential (river)bluffs profitable at all?

i mean smaller bets i will play back at early in the betting rounds, but what about those huge reraises on the river when you are holding a modest hand but suspect they are bluffing? i know you are supposed to take into account their style of play, but i dont take many notes because of multiple table play and i cant use PT on bodog.com.

my take on it is that if you have very very strong evidence they are bluffing, ie the fish likes to pay dearly for draws but they appeared to have missed, then call their bluffs down of course. But in all other cases, where you are teetering, nearly 50/50 whether you'll call or fold, i think the better choice is to fold because i think bluffing is pretty rare, and if ive shown strength throughout the hand, i like to think my opponents may be afraid im a fish and i'll miss what they are trying to represent, and thus i may call with a modest holding unaware or not believing their bet as many a fish will do.

i guess this is a complaint i have with myself because thats what i believe in theory up there. but in reality i find it hard as hell to fold my aces/trips/etc because of a reraise on the river, sometimes that 3rd suit hits on the river and i just cant believe they'd pay so much for a draw that i call their raises. im wondering if you guys agree that folding in every instance where your opponent is representing something you cant beat is profitable if you dont have strong evidence to the contrary. i should be like iceman and take out a notebook and record plays, but until then what do you guys think?
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Re: Calling potential bluffs

Postby rdale » Mon May 16, 2005 6:04 am

I single table mostly, so I think my read is fairly locked in most of the time. You have to figure out what that big bet on the end really means and there is only one way to do it. You should pick a spot where you think your hand can reasonably hold up and call, if you have something like middle or bottom pair played fast, just let it go, if you have KQ and top pair K and there are no overly obvious draws that hit, call and see where you stand.

There are some opponents that I check top pair to on the river because they will bluff bigger than I can get a value bet out of them, especially if there is a missed draw on the board, as they now assume that I've given up on semi-bluffing and they can steal the pot. They lose more of these than they win, so it more than makes up for the times they have a hand.

Then there are opponents like me, that appear to bet big on the river with the goods, but I'm bluffing about 10-25% of the time depending on the table and opponent. I partially want to get caught, even though dragging the pot is nice too, if I do get caught it means when I make a hand worth a big value bet, I'm likely to get called be a top pair type hand if my opponents are semi-aware.
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Postby Gregor » Mon May 16, 2005 2:00 pm

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