by Stelvask » Wed May 11, 2005 9:18 pm
First of all, i don't like your flop bet. less than half the pot is a dangerous choice with QJ on board. Even though it's still a rainbow flop, you're leaving all kinda off odds for someone to outdraw you. AK may call you thinking he has the best hand, KT definatly will, as will T9. AT is a possibilitiy too. You're bet is way too small. Furthermore, if this is the bet you make when you flop a monster, people are going to pick up on this.
Before you make a bet like this, think to yourself 'what would i bet if i had aces here? how about AK? how about TT? " figure out hose bets, and i'm pretty sure you'll agree that $5 is way too little.
well, onto the button. He's likely to haveone of three hands.
A: AQ/AJ. you bet less than half the pot on the flop, and he could think that he has the best hand at this point against your TT or 99 or A or something to that effect. if he has half a brain you're all in tells him he doesn't have the best hand. However, if you flat call here, AK/AJ bets this turn, at which point you can move in on him. This is the only situation where you're definatly leaving money
B: a bluff. once again, less than half the pot on the flop. I still don't like this bet. if he's bluffing he might continue on the turn, but it's kinda doubtful
C: A semi-bluff. this is the most dangerous case if you had chosen to slowplay and smooth call his raise. THe only way you get more money out of the semi-bluff is if he hits, in which case you're in a lot of trouble. If he raised you with KT here and misses on the turn, he's checking behind you. If he hits the turn, he'll likely bet since his hand is well disguesed, at which point you'll probably raise and get all the money in as an underdog.
-[4h]-
Stelvask