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Flopped Set vs. Big Reraise

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Flopped Set vs. Big Reraise

Postby T-Rod » Fri Jul 08, 2005 7:21 am

Would you just call this reraise or push all-in? The other player is fairly tight although not a rock.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ Hero (6 max, 6 handed)

CO ($111)
Button ($94.5)
SB ($306.62)
Hero ($100)
UTG =#A500AF(Tight Player Villain)/ ($97.5)
MP ($77.45)

Preflop: Hero is BB with [7s], [7h]. SB posts a blind of $0.5.
UTG =#A500AF(Tight Player Villain)/ calls $1, MP calls $1, CO calls $1, 1 fold, SB (poster) completes, Hero checks.

Flop: ($5) [3c], [9d], [7c] (5 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $2, Tight Player Villain raises to $6, MP folds, CO folds, SB folds, Hero raises to $25, Tight Player Villain raises to $60, Hero raises to $95, Hero calls $1.50.

Turn: ($161.50) [6d] (2 players)

River: ($161.50) [5s] (2 players)

Final Pot: $161.50

Results in white below:
Hero has 7s 7h (three of a kind, sevens).
Tight Player Villain has 9h 9c (three of a kind, nines).
Outcome: Tight Player Villain wins $161.50.
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Postby majakovskij » Fri Jul 08, 2005 7:47 am

No way I'm folding a set with this flop. No way.

After his second reraise, I'd definately push. If you lose to a higher set, then so be it. All your money is very likely to end up in the pot anyway on fourth street. You could be up against a set of 3's or even [Ac] [9c]. I've seen a lot of hyper-aggressive moves with top pair and a draw to the nut flush (and I've made some myself, to be honest). Just last night I put a guy all-in (we both had full stacks) on the turn with top set, which he called with an OESD. That amazed me. People like to gamble. That's what's so great about NL. You'll get your money back in a similar situation, no doubt.
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Postby shamdonk » Fri Jul 08, 2005 8:42 am

Do you always bet almost half the pot with a set? Or are you trying to rope him in thinking you are weak? I don't want to nit pick, but i would bet the full pot because it looks like you are inviting a suited gapper to bust you. Espcecially at at short handed table I limp with suited 1 gappers and thats a flop most LAGs show their teeth on. But that is my only concern, besides that you have to push; if you get busted by a set, well everyone experiences that and its no fun. :oops:
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Postby Longwyfrmlbc » Fri Jul 08, 2005 8:59 am

I get stacked here every time. I also bet bigger on the flop. That's about the drawiest board there is, especially with 5 players in an unraised pot.

Hey, at least you had outs :shock:

I mean....

At least you had out.
Solid but Angry Player: it's ok, in the long run your gonna make me a lot of money with bad play
Belligerent Outdrawer: how about i fly to where you live and kick your ass
Solid but Angry Player: what, are you going to outdraw me to death?
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Postby T-Rod » Fri Jul 08, 2005 9:44 am

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Postby T-Rod » Fri Jul 08, 2005 10:02 am

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Postby ua1176 » Fri Jul 08, 2005 1:56 pm

with middle set on a flop like that....you don't want a cheap showdown. you want all your chips and all your opponent's chips into the pot ASAP. if you've been oversetted 3x in a row, that is a statistical aberration that, although seriously stack-busting, should not affect how you play your hands. for every time you lose to a higher set, you'll win 10 times against a lower set, 2 pair, or an overpair.
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Postby T-Rod » Fri Jul 08, 2005 2:19 pm

I agree UA about the statistical aberration (and all three were on the flop too--not like I let them draw). What's that like 1 in 1000 or something?

But in the middle of the worst losing streak of my poker career, your mind can start to play games with you. I appreciate the validation.

TR
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Postby poker2006 » Fri Jul 08, 2005 2:19 pm

I will never drop a set there, when only 99 beats me. I would assume he has an overpair limped UTG, possibly AA/KK. I don't think a draw would get all in there unless he is very aggressive. You have to get all in with that hand.

At 50NL I don't even drop sets of 7s on 789 boards, I ran into a straight a few times but playing sets to the end has been very profitable. This does depend on players though, there are some good players what I know will not come after me without the straight or a set, so I'll be more careful in that case. At higher limits I'm sure you have to be more careful on coordinated boards.
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Postby Aisthesis » Fri Jul 08, 2005 3:08 pm

As shamrock mentioned, the only part of your play that I have any question about here is your weak flop bet. It doesn't matter a whole lot against a bigger set, but what if you had gotten a flat call and the board develops exactly as it does? You've just gotten yourself into a very big mess.

Moreover, the full pot bet gives you a lot more info: 99 or 33 is more often than not going to minimum raise you. Now, with middle set, I lose my stack absolutely every time--regardless of stack depth. There is absolutely no way I'm failing to raise big every time (by the way, I do like your raising quantities better than his, once the action gets going) on that flop. But against a tight player with a minimum raise, I think you might consider laying down if you had 33. Here again, though, if you don't bet out pot, I don't think you can have sufficient confidence in your read, and laying down 33 after betting pot and getting minimum raised I would consider an enormously tough laydown, but it is one that I would consider.

It's really rough getting oversetted so often, but you just can't lose confidence in your sets. They're still monsters, and you've just had a horrible run with them. If it's any consolation, I had the worst run of the last few months 2 nights ago when I had 3 sets, one of which just took down the flop pot (unraised) and two of which lost, one to an overfull (2 pair hit an A on the river) or a flush made on the turn (I think I may have even made a crying call to a small river bet).
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for the 4th time in a week

Postby T-Rod » Sun Jul 10, 2005 10:39 am

At least it was at the 50 table.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 max, 10 handed)

UTG+1 =#A500AF(Villan)/ ($57)
UTG+2 ($50)
MP1 ($19.5)
MP2 ($63.3)
MP3 ($36)
CO ($51.21)
Hero ($62.42)
SB ($82)
BB ($58.75)
UTG ($49.2)

Preflop: Hero is Button with [3d], [3h]. SB posts a blind of $0.25.
UTG calls $0.50, UTG+1 =#A500AF(Villan)/ calls $0.50, 1 fold, MP1 raises to $2, 2 folds, CO calls $2, Hero calls $2, 2 folds, UTG calls $1.50, UTG+1 =#A500AF(Villan)/ calls $1.50.

Flop: ($10.75) [Qh], [3c], [7d] (5 players)
UTG checks, Villan bets $3, MP1 folds, CO folds, Hero calls $3, UTG folds.

Turn: ($16.75) [9d] (2 players)

River: ($16.75) [8c] (2 players)

[Hero all in
Villan calls

villan as trip 7s to Hero's tripped3
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