Hypothetical scenario:

5/10 NL. You are on the button and have a full stack of $1000. UTG, also with a full stack, open raises to 40. Assume that you have a perfect read on UTG and you are 100% sure that he has AA. You also know that he will not give the hand up and that you can get his entire stack if you hit, unless the board puts out a 4-flush or a 4-straight.

What hands would you play? That is, how low would you go?

Related topic - what are the odds of 56s outflopping AA, where neither of the aces are the same suit as the 56s?

Thanks!

D

I would call the raise with any suited connectors and any PP. From there you know your outs and its pretty simple to calculate your odds after the flop and on the turn.

The odds of flopping a straight are 1.3% you flop a flush a liittle less than 1%. and you flop 2 pair about 2% of the time and trips 1.5% of the time. This means you will only be ahead after the flop less than 9% of the time, but to win $1000 and only call $40 you are getting impied odds to call. The real stregnth here is flopping the draw, and knowing that you are most likely going to get odds to call. Even in your opponant bets the pot on the flop you are more than getting implied odds to call with a flush draw, or open-ended draw.

I would play any two cards here. My implied odds are 23 to 1. With 72o I am only a 7 to 1 underdog pre-flop. The worst case is that I am dealt A6o or any other unsuited Ace. Even then I'm only a 13 to 1 dog so the implied odds are still there. These odds all assume I see all 5 cards, but I'd most likely have to catch a piece on the flop to continue from there. Unless I'm missing something, Any two will do!

Personally, I think the "right answer" in somewhere in the middle of iceman's reply and dahitdogg's reply. Any two seems a bit extreme. I don't think that hands like K2o will flop 2 pair enough to make a preflop call profitable. Further that two pair isnt guaranteed to hold up, either. I think that you need a flush possibility, as well as some straight possibilities to make the call profitable. I'm sure its possible, albeit difficult, to do some math on this. I would guess that any suited two gapper would do, 36 and up, but below KT - keeping the A for a straight out of the picture.

D

Dogg's analysis seems too simple. Your odds right now are 23 to 1, but your odds of winning with 72o are only 7-to-1 underdogs if you take it all the way to the river.

Put it this way. If you know he has AA, AND you know that he will play for his whole stack no matter what, AND you know that he will check it to you on the flop and turn so that you can see all 5 community cards for free -- THEN you are getting 23 to 1 on a 7 to 1 shot with your 72o and can call. But since he'll bet pot on the flop and your 72o is unlikely to be ahead on the flop, you have to fold that junk preflop.

Most of the time that 72o beats AA preflop is because you get a 7 and/or a 2 on the turn and/or river. You can't call a pot-sized bet on the flop even hitting a 7 or a 2 because you're still way behind -- even though some of the time you will win.

Anyway. I'm with MG. Two-gappers unsuited, probably all the way down to 52o, but no Ax hands. Any two suited cards, probably. But I haven't run any odds here so it's just a guess.

My analysis was meant to be simple since there are so many variables. My main point is $1000 is a lot of money to win for a measly $40 call when I have such "perfect" information about my opponent. To take the analysis a bit further here are two situations with AA vs 72o.

Win %
Opponent: Ad As (87.4%)
Me: 7c 2h (12.6%)

Pot = $80
Implied odds 25:1, Odds of hand winning (with all cards exposed) are 7:1

Flop #1: Js Td 5c
Implied odds are now 13:1 ($1040/80)
Opponent bets $80 - I am now a 32:1 dog so I fold.

Flop #2: Td 7s 5c
Opponent bets $80
Implied odds are now 13:1 ($1040/80)
My odds of winning are now 4.4:1
I call, Pot = $240

Turn #2A: Td 7s 5c (Qd)
Opponent bets $240
Implied odds are now 4.7:1 ($1,120/240)
Odds of winning are now 7.8:1
I fold

Turn #2B: Td 7s 5c (2d)
Opponent bets $240
Implied odds are now 4.7:1 ($1,120/240)
Odds of winning are 4.5:1 for
I call (what's the point in raising if he's going all the way anyway. I might as well make sure the Rive doesn't bring an Ace ore pair the T or 5)

*This is far from a complete analysis, but I still think I would play 72o versus the AA given the parameters. If at anypoint during the hand an Ace falls or the board pairs then I know what to do. The most you can lose on this hand is $480 and that requires us to make a better hand on the turn and then get sucked out on at the river. Anyway the "true" answer would require us to know the frequencies of each situation happening.

Wow. Nice analysis, and even longer than what I was thinking of writing to try to work things out. You could well be right on this one. Cool stuff.

That will only work if you know the guy has AA and more inportantly, you know he will never fold AA no matter what. Thats just not ever the case.

I suppose i need to play K3s against pocket Aces from now on too

------HAND 5------
Game #591318173: Texas Hold'em Pot Limit (£0.50/£1) - 2005/04/20 - 12:42:50 (ET)
Table "Quincy" Seat 3 is the button.
Seat 1: Troyxx (£119.75 in chips)
Seat 2: SOMETIMES (£16.25 in chips)
Seat 3: doormouse (£94.75 in chips)
Seat 4: Trac08065 (£56.63 in chips)
Seat 5: Gulo_Gulo (£60.50 in chips)
Seat 6: samd20 (£40.31 in chips)
Trac08065: posts small blind £0.50
Gulo_Gulo: posts big blind £1
----- HOLE CARDS -----
dealt to Troyxx [4s 5c]
samd20: raises to £3.50
Troyxx: folds
SOMETIMES: folds
doormouse: calls £3.50
Trac08065: folds
Gulo_Gulo: raises to £14.50
samd20: calls £11
doormouse: calls £11
----- FLOP ----- [Kh 3s 3h]
Gulo_Gulo: bets £44
samd20: folds
doormouse: raises to £80.25 and is all-in
Gulo_Gulo: is all-in £2
Returned uncalled bets £34.25 to doormouse
----- TURN ----- [Kh 3s 3h][3d]
----- RIVER ----- [Kh 3s 3h 3d][Kd]
----- SHOW DOWN -----
doormouse: shows [Kc 3c] (Four of a kind, Threes)
Gulo_Gulo: shows [Ac As] (A Full House, Threes full of Aces)
doormouse collected £133 from Main pot
----- SUMMARY -----
Total pot £136 Main pot £133 Rake £3
Board [Kh 3s 3h 3d Kd]
Seat 1: Troyxx folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 2: SOMETIMES folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 3: doormouse (button) showed [Kc 3c] and won (£133) with Four of a kind, Threes
Seat 4: Trac08065 (small blind) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 6: samd20 folded on the Flop

Ain't nothign wrong with talking like a Southern Gentleman!