I've been making about 20BB/100 hands, but I've only played about 1000 hands (at the $600 buy-in game), so that's not near enough to really judge the games. A single stack won or lost will still effect the win rate dramatically, so I don't think it's a very useful number yet.

From my impression the games are much tighter than the old $100 buy-in games, that's for sure. Most tables average around 19% VP$P. If anything I think the games are more tight/weak than tight/aggressive, though there are always a few aggressive players at every table. I would assume there are other players playing above their normal limits and that's causing them to play tighter. It will be interesting to see if the tables get worse after a month or so and only the better players are left.

Wow, 20BB/100 hands is an impressive stat at these limits. I've been so tempted to jump up and sit at some of the bigger limits, but I know better because I can't afford to lose a $400 buy in.

after about 9000 hands from my pokertracker with a bb/100 3.24. This is my number from my NL200 games and i know its not impressive or anything because lately i havent been doing well so my question to any expert or experience play is that will i be able to hang at the NL400 if i move up?

I assume that the 3.24 is what PT says? So your actual win rate is 6.48BB / 100 hands.

This is a bit low to be thinking about moving up yet. I would stay where youre at and work on your game some more before moving up. Your win rate will drop as you move up, so at this point, you could even be a losing player at higher stakes.

thanx ICE.

Hey ice i have another question?? so why would the actual win rate be 6.48BB/100 and not 3.24bb/100 like what pt said??

Ice,
I know everyone throws out the 20 buyins thing, but have you ever actually lost anywhere near that? I mean, if you're down 10 or 12 buyins, that's like 5k... Shouldn't you think about moving back down at some point then? I mean, if I lose 1 or 2 buyins, I'm screaming, and I can afford it... I'd be on suicide watch if I lost 20 ...

Ice,

At $4000 I think you can *start* playing $400NL (eg one $400NL table + one $200NL table), with the intention of moving back to $200NL full time each time you drop down to $3000 or so. I didn't make that very clear though in the original post - fair point.

Surely 10 PTBB/100 at $200NL (=$40/100) is comfortably sustainable at two-table play? (I have a slightly flaky laptop, so attempts to play more tables have ended in disaster)

I always assumed you and the other strong players had 15+ PTBB/100 hands at this level (but if not, I'd be pretty sure it's because you play more than 2 tables).

I challenge anyone to send me a screenshot of the pokertracker screen showing 15PTBBs / 100 hands at ANY level......doesnt count unless you have at least 15000 hands.

I wont believe it until I see it. Ive played too long and have too many people in my database to believe its possible.

10PTBBs is absolutely dominating your stakes. Win rate is something I have thought about and wondered about for a long time because I always wanted to know where I stacked up against other good and great players. No matter how good you think you are, you always wonder how good you REALLY are compared to other people.

I have enough experience now that I am 100% sure what is a good and/or great win rate.


As far as the bankroll thing goes....sure you can dabble in bigger games if you want with 10 buy ins or so, but the main point is that the swings will be big as compared to a percentage of your roll and you will play scared. Also, if all you have is $4000, you havent paid your dues long enough at lower stakes to have supreme confidence in your abilities. You could easily be outclassed and not even know it until its too late.

Fair enough. Though of course most people crushing a game at a particular bankroll will either (i) play more tables (reducing win rate), (ii) play a higher level, or both.

To be clear, I've certainly never sustained 15 PTBBs/100 over a statistically significant period. But I assumed that stronger players could, given (i) my rate over 15K hands and (ii) the number of monkey errors I make (NME/100 hands)