by Aisthesis » Wed May 11, 2005 4:05 am
Very interesting. I'll try to comment along with some of the further issues I wanted to address.
First of all is raising quantity. I figure you really would like to have 2 callers ideally pretty much on all of your raises, but AK actually is a bluff raise, or more accurately semi-bluff, I think. So, UTG, that might mean as low as just minimum raise or it might, at looser tables, mean more like $8 (again, I'm just calling this a $100 table--i.e., .50/1). I don't really like raising more than that myself, and I like to keep the whole thing pretty uniform for all the raising hands.
Ok, so the next issue is what to do on a re-raise, as you pointed out. Again, quantity is definitely an issue. For me, anyway, "by the book" re-raise needs to be at least 3 times the raise and preferably 4 times. I'd say a minimum re-raise is a fairly obvious call for AK--or all-in would also seem to be an option. If you think someone's capable of re-raising TT-AA as well as AK, one question would then be when are they calling your all-in?
Let's just play one of these through in theory: You raise AK to $4 UTG. MP re-raises something to $16 (range: TT-AA and AK). You move in.
Scenario 1: Re-raiser calls all-in with any of the above. Ok, you're a coinflip now to TT-QQ (6 of each), obviously to AK, and a big dog to AA and to KK. There's $21.50 in the pot. There are now 18 instances of TT-QQ altogether, 9 instances of AK, and 3 each of AA and KK. So, in 27 instances you split the $21.50. In 3 instances (I'll just say you lose 90% of the time to AA, although it may actually be even worse), you've lost 90% of $84 or $75.60 while winning 10% of $21.50 or $2.15. So, the total for AA is -$73.
Against KK, you should win more like 25% of the time. So, you're down $63 on your investment, over and against winnings of $5.38. So the net loss there is around $58.
So, you win roughly $10.75 on the splits (actually slightly worse) 27 times: Total there is $290. Against AA you lose $219. Against KK you lose $174. Clearly -EV here (to make it correct, we need to divide by 33, which is the number of instances, but bad is bad, so I'll leave that one. It's just not horrible).
Scenario 2: They'll call the all-in only with AA or KK. In that case, I think it's clear that the all-in is profitable. Now you win the full $21.50 27 times for a total of $580.50, which is more than the $393 that you lose against AA/KK (again, total result to be divided by 33).
So, I guess the moral of the story is that laying back with AK is a good idea against loose re-raisers prepared to go all the way--specifically, if you can put them on at least decent pairs or AK (if AQ is in the range, that's getting close to making the all-in profitable, particularly if they're prepared to call with AQ). Honestly, though, I haven't run into so many of those in cash games, although they abound in tournaments. And it's obviously a very "high swing" move (not advisable for those inclined to go on tilt when they lose their stacks).
Also to consider is whether the re-raise quantity might allow you to sniff out some specifics as to opponents' holdings (like a JJ that doesn't want to go all the way would probably be inclined to re-raise less, etc.)
More in yet another post in this thread.