Okay... So there's been a lot of talk lately on the site about people being worried about hitting bottom set and being drawing dead in a set-over-set situation... I am statistics retarded, and can't figure out any numbers for myself... So, I'm asking some of the smarter posters (ie... Ice, Aisthesis,Briachek... don't be offended if I missed you, I'm still hung over) to provide some stats to back up whether this should be a serious concern or not... I personally can't imagine it is... but then again, I lose more than anyone else out here.... Here's the scenario...

Dealt in MP... Limp... Someone in LP raises to $8 (1/2NL... sorry)... 1 EP calls, I call...

Flop ... Checked to LP who bets $25... EP calls... I, in MP, minraise (tipoff to anyone payin attention)... Call... call...

Turn ... EP bets $50... MP calls... LP raises to $150... EP folds... MP pushes for $50 more...

How afraid should I be that LP has KK or JJ, or would you put him more on AK,KQ, or KJ... Assume that this is the typical 1/2NL player at Party (pretty LAGGY, not overly good)...

Well, let's say first they either have KJ, KK, or JJ:
KK: 6 combinations
JJ: 6 combinations
KJ: 18 combinations

So you're 60% ahead. Add in possibilities of AK (24 combinations) and AA (12 combinations) and you're cooking with gas.

Best case you're ahead 54/66 (82%), worst case 18/30 (60%). All those hands are putting their money in on Party 1/2.

[EDIT: maybe worst case is AA, KK, JJ ... this is 50%, still easily enough to play for your stack]

ps If the hand was real, don't min raise the flop

As a generality, don't worry about it, suck it up when it happens and pray it is a smaller stack that has you oversetted

Set over set does happen but it is rare...

There is only two betting patterns that tips me of my tripped up twos are no good, I lead, original preflop raiser reraiser, some body after him moves in on a K92 flop. If either of these guys are bozos I'm going broke here, if neither of them are yahoos I assume that I'm up against AK AA KK and 99 from the later guy. Often times though I will be pot commited to seeing the hand out unless they are both really deep. If one of them or both is a known nutpeddler (more applicable to Stars than anywhere else) letting it go is even easier.

LP player makes it 3x to go, you call in the BB with 77. Flop is QQT it checks around turn is a 7 there is some activity and you are called in two spots with LP raising, river is K, and two people move in before you, or after you lead for 1/3 pot. This is a tough and very marginal fold/call situation, but I have folded bottom set correctly here more than incorrectly. It is a real situational situation to lay down the baby boat that comes down to whether you think he has KK misplayed, AQ KQ TT. Not saying let this one go everytime, but use your best judgement in the situation, having the table covered makes these choices easier.

Folding bottom set isn't something to make a habit of doing, just take your lumps like the rest of us when you are beat

Pretty much all the people I play against I will go broke or drag the pot with set over set. It doesn't concern me when I lose other than the grumbling about misfortune to catch a good enough hand to play for all the money and come up short.

I think Ice and Ais should be offended that I was included in that list

Anyway, I don't like the way you played the hand at all. I would lead into him on the flop because that is a board that could have really hit a preflop raiser and I want him to raise me and I can get my stack in. If I got for the check raise, I don't min raise as I want them to make a bad decision for their stack. I am getting most of my stack in on the flop either way.

If he hits a higher set, it happens. I don't know the exactly math of that but assuming you both have pocket pairs and both are about 7.5::1 to hit, then the odds of both you you hitting would be 56.25:1 (7.5 x 7.5:1 right?) Therefore, I am not gonna slow down for that. It happens.

As hopy says, their are many hands a player could play like this (KJ, AK, ect) and their are more combinations on those hands so the odds he has those hands than KK or JJ are much greater too.

rdale... I pretty much agree that there's not much to worry about... It's like having the nut boat and worrying about 4 of a kind...

One question on your second hand... Wouldn't your LP player possibly raising w/ AJs push you a little more toward calling...?