Sorry, but your thought process is fundamentally wrong. Check the notion of Baseyan probability (not sure about the spelling).
The application of that idea to this perticular problem is that you can’t use the probability of having AA preflop for a situation when you get reraised. The probability of our opponent having AA after he reraised is much higher than the probability of him having AA beforehand. Here comes the Basean trick, with the new information we should recalculate the probabilities.
The best way to do that is to estimate his reraising range of an UTG raiser. If we assume a very broad range like {99+, AQ+} for 51 possible combinations (taking into account that we have AK ourselves), we will get the probability of him having AA, p= 3/51, or about 6%. 3 times higher than your estimation! For a more realistic range it will become even higher.
Thoughts on AK Preflop (6 MAX context)
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Cooper - Posts: 729
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by GodlikeRoy » Mon Sep 17, 2007 2:36 am
Poker is silly.
It is not enough to be good at chess, you must also play well.
Somewhere in the world someone is training when you are not. When you race him, he will win.
It is not enough to be good at chess, you must also play well.
Somewhere in the world someone is training when you are not. When you race him, he will win.
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GodlikeRoy - Posts: 7430
- Joined: Sun Jul 24, 2005 1:43 am
by Zmej » Mon Sep 17, 2007 3:47 am
"#3 pencils and quadrille pads."
- Seymoure Cray (1925-1996) when asked what CAD tools he used to design the Cray I supercomputer; he also recommended using the back side of the pages so that the grid lines were not so dominant.
"Interesting - I use a Mac to help me design the next Cray."
- Seymoure Cray (1925-1996) when he was told that Apple Inc. had recently bought a Cray supercomputer to help them design the next Mac.
- Seymoure Cray (1925-1996) when asked what CAD tools he used to design the Cray I supercomputer; he also recommended using the back side of the pages so that the grid lines were not so dominant.
"Interesting - I use a Mac to help me design the next Cray."
- Seymoure Cray (1925-1996) when he was told that Apple Inc. had recently bought a Cray supercomputer to help them design the next Mac.
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Zmej - Posts: 2307
- Joined: Wed Mar 29, 2006 5:44 am
- Location: France. (Russian origin.)
by NorthView » Mon Sep 17, 2007 5:17 am
Mon May 12, 2008 1:46 am
When I play a patient and relaxed game I win - that simple.
Mon May 12, 2008 10:55 pm
Seriously, fuck poker.
==================================================================
[21:03] NorthViewBTP: mac is a fellow mexican
[21:03] Mekosking: yup
[21:03] NorthViewBTP: you should support your bro
[21:03] Mekosking: therefore hes a fat worthless tsr obv
When I play a patient and relaxed game I win - that simple.
Mon May 12, 2008 10:55 pm
Seriously, fuck poker.
==================================================================
[21:03] NorthViewBTP: mac is a fellow mexican
[21:03] Mekosking: yup
[21:03] NorthViewBTP: you should support your bro
[21:03] Mekosking: therefore hes a fat worthless tsr obv
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NorthView - Posts: 5998
- Joined: Sun Apr 03, 2005 8:02 am
- Location: Not another flush card
by Zmej » Mon Sep 17, 2007 6:08 am
"#3 pencils and quadrille pads."
- Seymoure Cray (1925-1996) when asked what CAD tools he used to design the Cray I supercomputer; he also recommended using the back side of the pages so that the grid lines were not so dominant.
"Interesting - I use a Mac to help me design the next Cray."
- Seymoure Cray (1925-1996) when he was told that Apple Inc. had recently bought a Cray supercomputer to help them design the next Mac.
- Seymoure Cray (1925-1996) when asked what CAD tools he used to design the Cray I supercomputer; he also recommended using the back side of the pages so that the grid lines were not so dominant.
"Interesting - I use a Mac to help me design the next Cray."
- Seymoure Cray (1925-1996) when he was told that Apple Inc. had recently bought a Cray supercomputer to help them design the next Mac.
-
Zmej - Posts: 2307
- Joined: Wed Mar 29, 2006 5:44 am
- Location: France. (Russian origin.)
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