by ua1176 » Fri Jul 22, 2005 1:51 am
he could be leading out with lots of things....from AA-JJ to a set to a flush to AK w/ the Ace of hearts. i think if MP1 raises, you can let it go. if he calls...its tough. but once he's folded, i think you have to raise. after the BB's bet...the pot should be $26 + the blinds. so...i would raise to about $25 or so and see what happens.
i think the most likely hands at this point are QQ, JJ, or a set of 4's. i think the flush is unlikely because usually the people who call big raises with suited cards while short-stacked are the same people who check their flush till the river. you beat the overpairs, and there's an outside chance your raise will cause 44 to fold.
the bottom line is this: you have no idea currently where you're at in the hand, and a 1/3 pot bet is way too weak for you to be folding to. you need some information and now is the cheapest street to get it.
jon