another sports betting weekend approaches....

[Nashvegas]

Here are two games where I think the line is way off:

Vanderbilt (4-3) +8 at South Carolina (3-3).
-- Too many people pick SC "because they have spurrier"
-- Too many people pick against VU "because Vandy can't win"
-- Vandy has road wins this season at Arkansas and Wake Forest, plus home wins over Richmond and Ole Miss.
-- South Carolina's wins are, I think, Central Florida, Troy, and Kentucky. They played UGA closer than Vandy, but got dismantled at home by Alabama.


UGA -19.5 vs Arkansas
-- I've seen both of these teams play in person this season, both against Vandy.
-- UGA's run defense is spectacular, and Arkansas' defense has no answer for a mobile QB. Even VU's Jay Cutler was mobile enough to cause huge problems for Ark, and he's no Shockley.
-- Arkansas' DL is no match for Georgia's OL -- this could be a very long game. Georgia has the best DL in the SEC, I think that Arkansas will have to rely on the passing game, lengthening the game and helping the favorite beat the spread.

You might think I'm just a Vandy "homer", but I am 6-1 in picking VU games against the spread (picked VU against Wake, Arkansas, and Ole Miss, and picked UGA, richmond, and MTSU against VU. Only missed the Ole Miss game, and that was by 2 points.) I'm also significantly above 500 in picking SEC games, and I have picked a team in each SEC game this season. I think these are two pretty good bets.