by Felonius_Monk » Tue Jan 11, 2005 6:39 pm
$1 looks like a bit of a feeling bet in this case. There might just be some fold equity of re-raising on the flop, which is the best possible result if he has a king.
The problem with playing this passively is
1) given the betting so far, you may be giving a free card to a hand that could be folded by raising him
2) it doesn't have an advantage in terms of gaining value; sometimes, you'll say in holdem, "i'll check this down and see what develops". Well, here, regrdless of what turns you're none the wiser as to whether he has a boat or not. Sure, if you see a 2 or something (rather than, say, a jack) there's a REDUCED chance of him having a boat, but at party 25PLO when people see a flop with virtually any 4 cards, really even low cards arent especially safe. What do you do, then, if a low card hits and he bets out again? Another disadvantage of raising preflop with this hand is that the opportunity to just CALL every street for a cheap showdown is gone. With a pot raise on turn and river, it's going to be the stack going in here. If your opponent is willing to play passively, then maybe, but given that he re-raised here I think he's going to raise every street. IF you intend to call every street you may as well put in the money and take advantage of the fold equity.
I can see what you're getting at here, and in essence it's a tough situation. If the stacks are really deep I think some damage limitation and a couple of calls are in order. However, against an aggressive opponent and ESPECIALLY at party where they could be pushing any old thing, it's probably best just to play it out when you're 95% certain you're favourite. Also, the open raiser may have had a weak king and been "feeling the water", in which case you might get two callers along which can be a very profitable situation if they have similar sidecards.
All in all, I think you can argue this either way; it depends a lot on opponent, who else is involved in the hand, and what the stack sizes are. In this situation I like simply playing it out because there's really very little way you can know where you're at in this hand. Good thinking though. Sometimes playing a little defensively is smart in this game.
Monk
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