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flopped boat

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flopped boat

Postby Hofstra » Tue Jan 11, 2005 10:18 am

$25 PLO on UB. My stack is about $40, my opponent has $60.

I get [Ts] [Td] [9d] [8c] in MP. After one limper, I made it 2xBB. Including LP opponent, 4 see the flop of

[Kd] [Th] [Kh].

How do you play this? EP bets $1. I decided not to slowplay but build the pot, so I raise the pot. Opponent in LP reraises the pot. Folded to me. If opponent has a K and no T then I'm a slight favourite. If he has KT or KK then I'm dead. What to do?

I ended up putting all the money in, figuring that it would go in anyway, but lost to Kings full when my opponent paired a second hole card. (He had [Ad] [Ks] [Qs] [7d]. )

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Postby briachek » Tue Jan 11, 2005 10:57 am

maybe this is weak tight but here is my opinion.

You flopped the low boat so you are vunerable to only the higher boat or quads. Therefore, if someone wants to make it cheap for you to see a showdown, i would do it. You don't have to worry about straight or flush draws (just the unlikely straight flush draw). I have found many people that will not bet trips aggressively, only if they have a boat. So as long as they are keeping it cheap, you can see a cheap showdown if they don't fill. However, most people will not drop trips so if they still bet weakly on turn, you can try pushing then when there is only one card left to fill their boat.

But in the end, I probably wouldn't have even followed my own advice and would have pushed it too. However, when the flop is high cards like that, its more likely someone else has they boat too. If the flop was 665 and I had 55, I would be able bet it with more confidence.

In omaha, you have to be willing to lay down strong hands, like king/queen high flushes and low boats to strong opposition. However, the way people on party play, its hard for this type of play not to be a positive EV play in the long run, just with a big variance.
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Postby Felonius_Monk » Tue Jan 11, 2005 1:22 pm

Few quick points. You can play this ina few different ways; with the tiny stacks on party I advocate getting all in and i'll explain why (this is a very common PLO situation which is made much simpler with tiny stacks! With big ones it becomes a lot harder).

1) With only 50BB to play with, I would be disinclined to raise it up preflop with TT98. Make no mistake, this is a playable hand and I DO like raising quite often in PLO, but i'd usually be a little more selective at Party where theres so many likely callers and a tiny stack to play with. Anyways, it's never a big error to raise preflop in PLO so i'll let this one slide :wink:

2) Onto the flop - well, it all depends on how risky you like to play it :). personally, with such a small stack, i'm happy to get it all in here and see if he's inclined to fold. IF we assume he doesnt have a boat or quads (not always necessarily true!), then you're favourite if this is played out. One of the big points to remember here is that against the hand your opponent has you're only about 58% to win the hand, if there's a chance he duplicates one of the cards in your hand (the 9 or the 8) or has a pair in hand, your equity shoots up to 62%, if he has them both or a pair along with a card in your hand (AAK9 etc) you win a whopping three quarters of the time. So although there's a chance you're drawing dead (a slim chance) there's equally a chance he's drawing pretty thin. In the most likely situation, you're a slight but clear favourite, and you have no idea if a turn will or won't hit him. Thus, you might as well get all in now. If you have any intention of playing this hand out (he's almost certain to bet again on the turn) then you should just get all in now, there's no real reason to wait any later as you won't gain any more info or any more fold equity by doing so.

Against two opponents betting hard they also almost certainly both have a king and you're going to be doing great to get it all in. i could go through the maths of this but just take my word for it!

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Postby Hofstra » Tue Jan 11, 2005 2:20 pm

Thanks for the replies. My main problem was that I found this play uncomfortable given the stack sizes. With only 50BB I'd have no problem pushing everything in, but with a stack of 160 BB this might have unreasonably high variance.
If you were my opponent, how would you play this hand?

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Postby briachek » Tue Jan 11, 2005 3:18 pm

Monk,

Could you please comment on my take on the hand, (i.e. many people not betting except with boats, waiting to push on turn and flopping a boat with lower cards rather than KTK)? I would have likely pushed like Hofstra did and take my chances but I would wonder how good of a play my ideas would be.
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Postby Felonius_Monk » Tue Jan 11, 2005 6:39 pm

$1 looks like a bit of a feeling bet in this case. There might just be some fold equity of re-raising on the flop, which is the best possible result if he has a king.

The problem with playing this passively is

1) given the betting so far, you may be giving a free card to a hand that could be folded by raising him

2) it doesn't have an advantage in terms of gaining value; sometimes, you'll say in holdem, "i'll check this down and see what develops". Well, here, regrdless of what turns you're none the wiser as to whether he has a boat or not. Sure, if you see a 2 or something (rather than, say, a jack) there's a REDUCED chance of him having a boat, but at party 25PLO when people see a flop with virtually any 4 cards, really even low cards arent especially safe. What do you do, then, if a low card hits and he bets out again? Another disadvantage of raising preflop with this hand is that the opportunity to just CALL every street for a cheap showdown is gone. With a pot raise on turn and river, it's going to be the stack going in here. If your opponent is willing to play passively, then maybe, but given that he re-raised here I think he's going to raise every street. IF you intend to call every street you may as well put in the money and take advantage of the fold equity.

I can see what you're getting at here, and in essence it's a tough situation. If the stacks are really deep I think some damage limitation and a couple of calls are in order. However, against an aggressive opponent and ESPECIALLY at party where they could be pushing any old thing, it's probably best just to play it out when you're 95% certain you're favourite. Also, the open raiser may have had a weak king and been "feeling the water", in which case you might get two callers along which can be a very profitable situation if they have similar sidecards.

All in all, I think you can argue this either way; it depends a lot on opponent, who else is involved in the hand, and what the stack sizes are. In this situation I like simply playing it out because there's really very little way you can know where you're at in this hand. Good thinking though. Sometimes playing a little defensively is smart in this game.

Monk
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"Informer, you no say daddy me snow me Ill go blame,
A licky boom boom down.
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