by Felonius_Monk » Sat Feb 16, 2008 6:30 am
Roy, I think this is very much standard. I like your river bet; I don't think full pot is necessary here, but something in the ~$200 region looks good. I find it hard to believe that anyone with any boat is liable to fold here (maybe the bottom two pair rivering a boat MIGHT drop, but it seems odd for him to have played that hand in that manner so I'd almost discount that possibility).
I think the flop raise is absolutely necessary, if you're not raising this strong a draw then you're only raising made hands, which, from a metagamae perspective, makes you much easier to play against.
The turn bet is clearly the way to go, I believe you're a slim favourite over a bare set at this point and obviously want to put folding pressure on similar draws (perhaps including ones with a pair) to set up a possible river bluff, continue to rep a set, and possibly induce a fold with the second barrel.
All in all, I think this is 100% the right line here, good job.
The Monkman J[c]
"Informer, you no say daddy me snow me Ill go blame,
A licky boom boom down.
Detective mon said daddy me snow me stab someone down the lane,
A licky boom boom down." - Snow, 1993