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C/r'ed on Turn, but I have a big hand ($25 PLO)

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C/r'ed on Turn, but I have a big hand ($25 PLO)

Postby MTPaid » Fri Mar 14, 2008 9:28 pm

Villain sometimes takes marginal hands too far, but what $25 PLO players don't. He's not all that aggressive, more of a caller so a check-raise on the turn no doubt means a big hand, most likely the nuts, but I could have up to 16 outs against the nuts getting a little better than 3 to 1 to call and 2 to 1 if I shove.

I have the nut flush draw - up to 9 outs
Two pair - up to 4 outs
Gutshot broadway draw - up to 3 outs.

How many outs should I really count here?

$0.1/$0.25 Pot Limit Omaha Hi
6 players
Converted at

Stacks:
UTG ($11.60)
UTG+1 ($21.70)
CO ($14.40)
Hero ($24.00)
SB ($65.85)
BB ($27.55)

Pre-flop: ($0.35, 6 players) Hero is BTN [Tc][Kh][Ac][3d]
UTG calls $0.25 ($11.35), 2 folds, Hero raises to $1 ($23.00), SB calls $0.9 ($64.85), 1 fold, UTG calls $0.75 ($10.60)

Flop: [7c][3h][Jc] ($3.25, 3 players)
SB checks ($64.85), UTG checks ($10.60), Hero bets $2.5 ($20.50), SB calls $2.5 ($62.35), UTG folds ($10.60)

Turn: [Td] ($8.25, 2 players)
SB checks ($62.35), Hero bets $5 ($15.50), SB raises to $15.5 ($46.85), Hero ???
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Postby Kuso » Sat Mar 15, 2008 12:13 am

this is definitely wa/wb territory, so an abc line is to check the turn and see what happens on the river. inducing bluffs and/or bets from lesser hands = tite.

fwiw, i wouldn't call your hand "big" unless you know that villain will get all his money in light (think something like tp + any fd). i think it's better to say "you have outs" -- and you just don't necessarily know which ones are clean (luckily non-pairing flush cards are all good due to holding the [Tc]).

said another way, i usually don't want to play a big pot with this hand (in this context), so i would prefer to utilize my position to negate villain's chance to make the pot big.


[edited for clarificaiton]
Last edited by Kuso on Sat Mar 15, 2008 10:15 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby briachek » Sat Mar 15, 2008 8:15 am

what i normally do is just count the outs to the nuts (8 non pairing flush cards, 3 more Q's) and then add a few outs to that for the uncertain ones, like 50%. against a made straight with not much else, you have a about 35%. you are worse off against a set (depending on which set too).

you are barely not getting the price you need so if you can feel strong that he can ONLY have a made straight or a set, then i fold.

and i agree with kuso, you do have a pretty good hand on the turn but not the type that wants to play for your stack yet so check behind.
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Postby Kuso » Sat Mar 15, 2008 10:21 am

wwcrd?

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Postby MTPaid » Sat Mar 15, 2008 1:53 pm

I'm looking at this hand being more awake now than I was when I played it and the thing is, I haven't seen some of these situations many times yet and only have about 30 seconds - 1 minute to count my outs and make my decisions.

Going through the outs I posted, I think I may have double counted one of my 2 pair outs ([3c]), but I agree with Briachek that I'm not giving all my non-nut outs full counts.

On the turn though, I still somehow like the bet because against typical $25 players (who take marginal hands too far mostly by calling) a lot of his range is behind and I do have a decent, but not great made hand with 2 pair. I probably did over-state my hand as big in the OP. I meant marginal made + big draw.

He could still have a straight draw, a lesser flush draw + a pair or any combination that will probably just call me and if the flush hits on the river, he probably won't be paying me off unless he has one as well.

I didn't even know that my original turn bet would even be an issue.
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