by Felonius_Monk » Tue Mar 01, 2005 4:17 am
I can't see a hand he is willing to check-raise $400 and then fold for his last $350 or so. So, there is $650 or so to "play with" after you make the $100 bet on the flop (i.e. he can raise/bet/call another $650 in the hand). Once he check-raises I think it's pretty clear he isn't folding. So in essence you are putting in another $650 to play out a $1650 pot. You are putting in nearly 40% of the money and I can't really see you having 40% equity in this pot, though I guess it's not out of the question. I think a lot depends on his likely range of hands, here. My feeling is that he would lead out with a hand like A[c]Jx, rather than check-raise it, so I would think a set, a low made flush, or even a straight, are all very good possibilities.
You didn't really mention what your read on this guy was; I think if you reckon he's pretty straightforward, than this CR spells trouble and that 40% equity figure is unlikely to be attainable. I was going to rundown what the odds for each possible match up and work out how you'd make the 40% figure, but work have blocked access to the twodimes odds calculator grrrr...
If he is tricky and liable to make such plays with a hand like A[c]Jx, then I guess there's more merit to it but I still think you'd be better off saving your last $650 for a better spot. So, I marginally agree with Rhound but I think it's close.
Monk
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