by Felonius_Monk » Sun Jun 18, 2006 7:07 am
I think after he just calls your re-raise on the flop the turn bet is more or less a must. Hard to see him having anything that beats your 2nd top 2 pair here, and if he has one of the low sets perhaps he's rethinking his plans and you have some significant fold equity with a pot bet which will cover the fact you're putting money in as a dog. I think if he had a hand that really had you crucified, like a set plus nut low draw, he's not just calling that flop. I figure against his range you're probably somewhere in the 40-55% range with some fold equity (if we assume a fairly narrow range of hands he'll raise on the flop including a variety of drawing hands with A2, a variety of wraps around the 45, all sets and most 2 pairs; if he is typically aggro and bumps a few other things I guess you might infer that you're liable to be a reasonable favourite over his range).
Not sure about the flop re-raise but I don't think I mind it too much. I think perhaps a flop CR would be better.
The Monkman J[c]
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A licky boom boom down.
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