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I cant figure out this river play

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I cant figure out this river play

Postby iceman5 » Mon Mar 21, 2005 12:13 am

Heres a $2/$4 hand from today.

UTG limps, MP limps, I raise to $20 with [Kh][Kd]. They both call. They both have around $350-$400 and i have them covered.

The pot is $65 and the flop comes [Qs][9s][2h]. They check to me and I bet $50. UTG calls and MP folds.

The pot is $115. The turn is the [2d]. He checks and I check behind. Maybe I shouldve bet the turn because of the flush draw but I wanted to keep the pot small and didnt want to get check raised if he had a set.

The pot is still $115. The river is the [4c]. He checks again. Ok, if he had a real hand he has to make a value bet now because he has to think that I wont bet after checking the turn. I bet $50. Now he check raises all in.

Its about $250 to me with a pot around $465. What do you think he has and do you call?
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Postby Soul » Mon Mar 21, 2005 1:03 am

He's semi-bluffing. He has AQ of spades. His checkraise is a bluff after your 'weak' play.

Either that or he's slowplaying a set, boat on the turn and your way behind. But somehow I can't believe he would check the river with a boat here. I say call, altough it's a tough one for me.
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Postby Suhleafs » Mon Mar 21, 2005 6:48 am

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Postby eliteprodigy » Mon Mar 21, 2005 6:51 am

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Postby iceman5 » Mon Mar 21, 2005 8:52 am

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Postby k3nt » Mon Mar 21, 2005 10:27 am

I guess now you have information on how this guy plays. Expensive information though. Yuck.

Did you have any notes on this guy? I hope you do NOW, at any rate. :x

This is what I would think, and why I would fold, if it happened down on one of my little tables. A lot of people at GC play very passively. They prefer to call bets, both when they have a monster and when they have very little. The only way you can know which is which is by betting small. Then if they have a monster they get frustrated and raise you big. You can then fold.

Is the $50 bet into a $115 pot really a value bet? It looks too big to me. I would think that even with KQ he's not going to be willing to call more than $30 or so, about 1/4 of the pot. Maybe with AQ, I suppose. Maybe my value bets have always been too small?

I agree that he made a bad play on the river and that he won't get called there most of the time. But that's the point of being a good player, isn't it? Make the good plays yourself, and don't pay off the bad ones? I'm a little disappointed you called him.

Or maybe he makes money playing like this because it mystifies people so they have to call just to see wtf he is doing?
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Postby Gregor » Mon Mar 21, 2005 1:26 pm

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Postby iceman5 » Mon Mar 21, 2005 1:29 pm

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Postby Yogadude » Mon Mar 21, 2005 3:47 pm

Hey Ice, I signed up to your site just so I could reply to this one.

I agree with you, this is a very bad play by your opponnent. Assuming you know nothing about this opponent I think it would be too weak to check the river here and you need to value bet. This guy you are up against is one of those players that thinks the check-raise is the highest form of poker skill, second only to the big-bluff. I think that people feel smart when they check and raise with a hand. Like you said, 99% of the time the guy with quads would not get paid off because once you check the turn you are showing that you missed the flop and will most likely be checking the river too. He would have to know you extremelly well to think that you would bet the river here.

I play mostly Stars .50/1.00 NL and the live $100 buy-in at Commerce and see this kind of fancy play all the time. I cant tell ya how many times I check the turn like this and also check the river only to see my opponent show me a monster hand that he checked 3X.

Love your site! It motivated me to start playing live online NL (as opposed to the 3000 SnG's I've played) and so far I am finding the games to be great and am doing well.

Good Flops!

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Postby MindOverMatter » Mon Mar 21, 2005 5:31 pm

I think this play is brilliant.

If I'm Iceman's opponent, and I put him on a hand like a missed AK, I know I'm not getting called when I value bet that river. Therefore this play really is an attempt to induce a bluff.

Since it's most probable that Iceman holds AK in this pot (distribution-wise, and hand-play wise), then as his opponent with the quad deuces I stand to gain nothing by betting the river. The AK will simply fold. The only thing I can hope for is if I check the river and Iceman bets. Now whether or not an all-in raise is appropriate here is questionable, but a raise is certainly in order. AK will still likely fold to the raise but now you've captured the bet. And it just so happens that Iceman had a hand that he considered paying the bet off with.

Great play, I've tried it before and it has worked sometimes, but is not a play that I would run every time. You sacrifice a possibility of winning a little bit in order to try to win a lot more, plus you add deception and variety to your game.
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Postby TightWad » Mon Mar 21, 2005 8:11 pm

Ice,

I would've called. That should tell you all you need to know about how horrendously you played this hand ;)

-TW
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Postby Mad Genius » Mon Mar 21, 2005 10:50 pm

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Postby iceman5 » Tue Mar 22, 2005 12:19 am

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Re: I cant figure out this river play

Postby rdale » Tue Mar 22, 2005 1:35 am

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