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PLO $25 - AA facing donkbet turn

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PLO $25 - AA facing donkbet turn

Postby Stoneburg » Mon Jun 26, 2006 4:35 am

Opponent is 27/4. I have a note on him saying "CR flop with top two then PSB turn despite str8". His stats are unspectacular. He's winning over 460 hands.

Party Poker
Pot Limit Omaha Ring game
Blinds: $0.10/$0.25
9 players


Stack sizes:
UTG: $23.81
UTG+1: $35.78
MP1: $25
MP2: $25
MP3: $35.19
CO: $22.37
Hero: $36.92
SB: $16.21
BB: $25

Pre-flop: (9 players) Hero is Button with [Tc] [Ad] [6s] [As]
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 (poster) checks, MP2 (poster) checks, MP3 calls, CO calls, Hero raises to $2.35, SB calls, 3 folds, MP1 calls, 3 folds.

Flop: [9h] [3s] [4h] ($8.55, 3 players)
SB checks, MP1 checks, Hero bets $8.15, SB folds, MP1 calls.

Turn: [9d] ($24.85, 2 players)
MP1 bets $7
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Postby Felonius_Monk » Mon Jun 26, 2006 1:11 pm

The Monkman J[c]

"Informer, you no say daddy me snow me Ill go blame,
A licky boom boom down.
Detective mon said daddy me snow me stab someone down the lane,
A licky boom boom down." - Snow, 1993
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Postby Stoneburg » Mon Jun 26, 2006 3:16 pm

Yeah it wasn't a great situation to be in and I took almost the full time before deciding what to do, reconstructing the hand and his previous patterns.

I have a note on him saying he check/raised the preflop raiser with top two on the flop. This time he just called, which made me think he's on a draw, most likely flush draw but possibly a combination. Then he just donk leads the turn for half his remaining stack. If he has a set on that flop he HAS to worry about me having the [Ah], and why would he try to push me off when he fills up? And who the hell doesn't raise a set on such a horribly drawy flop in the first place? He'd need to have hit all his four cards to both have a flush draw and two-pair/set, that's just too unlikely.

Once I end up with the conclusion that he hasn't got the boat there's only two hands he could have. Either the flush draw, now trying to steal on a scare card, or a wrap like 9865 or simmilar, but a flush draw seems most likely. Now I decide I will pay him off if he has a 9 and that I won't let him draw for free with a flush draw, so I push the turn.

Reasonable decision?
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Postby Kuso » Mon Jun 26, 2006 4:49 pm

without a specific read to the contrary, donk bets into the aggressor at lower limits usually means a made hand of some sort. i'd think trips or better.

i'm willing to say that whatever he's got beats you (barring a better read to the contrary), so i'd fold unless i though i could make him fold -- unlikely given what little he has left behind.
wwcrd?

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Postby Stoneburg » Tue Jun 27, 2006 5:05 am

Actually he did fold, after taking forever, so we'll never know what he had for sure but I think a 9 is out of the question which pretty much leaves the flush draw.
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Postby Kuso » Tue Jun 27, 2006 5:10 am

wwcrd?

"that basically sums up poker for me - 12" needle in the testicle." <nutkick> mvp
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Postby Jimmyjohn » Tue Jun 27, 2006 10:11 am

"Shoot, boy....If you got enough luck, you can use S%#T for brains!!!!"
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Postby Felonius_Monk » Tue Jun 27, 2006 12:42 pm

The Monkman J[c]

"Informer, you no say daddy me snow me Ill go blame,
A licky boom boom down.
Detective mon said daddy me snow me stab someone down the lane,
A licky boom boom down." - Snow, 1993
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