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QQ River play

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QQ River play

Postby droqqa » Thu Mar 31, 2005 11:19 pm

CO in this example holds two black queens - what should he do on the river? UTGC has only shown two hands at this table - both sets and has a 5% preflop raise percentage, and plays about 21% of hands.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (10 handed)

UTG ($1811.25)
UTG+1 ($1886)
UTGC ($1455.25)
MP1 ($1364)
MP2 ($555.75)
MP3 ($1367.75)
CO ($602.25)
Button ($320.5)
SB ($302.75)
BB ($1037)

Preflop: SB posts a blind of $5.
2 folds, UTGC raises to $40, 3 folds, CO calls $40, 3 folds.

Flop: ($95) [3d], [4h], [7h] (2 players)
UTGC bets $80, CO calls $80.

Turn: ($255) [9h] (2 players)
UTGC checks, CO bets $125, UTGC calls $125.

River: ($505) [Ad] (2 players)
UTGC bets $250, CO ???.

Final Pot: $1005

What should CO do?

D
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Postby TheUnknownPlayer » Fri Apr 01, 2005 12:12 am

D,

I'd say the CO got himself into a world of trouble by calling pre-flop; imo it's a raise or fold situation.

That said, based on the info at hand it appears to be a clear fold. This player is very tight - and he raised pre-flop in EP. There are no hands that he could have at this point (with the possible exception of JJ and I'd have to know him better to know for sure) which don't beat the CO. His likeliest hands are probably AA, KK, AKs. Less likely are, AK, AQs, QQ. Unlikely but possible are AQ or JJ. Of these 8 hands you have one win and one tie.

BTW, if I failed to understand this correctly - sorry. I usually stay away from hand converter posts - I usually get lost.

TUP
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Postby Rhound50 » Fri Apr 01, 2005 2:42 am

I dont like the CO's play here all the way through. If you are going to just call the raise prefop, you are doing so because you think you have the best hand and you do so to hide the stregnth of your hand. The flop is a pretty good one for pocket Q's. With a 5% raise percentage you can pretty much rule out him having a set with that flop. If you called the flop bet your are either thinking that your opponant has big cards and you have him beat after this flop, or you think he has a bigger PP and you are getting implied odds to hit your set and break him.

This is a good flop for your hand but your hand is still vulernable. If you think you have the best hand you have to raise the flop, if you think you are beat fold, you arent getting odds to draw at your set.. A bad card hits on the turn and you still called $120, instead of calling it on the turn raise with it on the flop. By just calling the flop you have no way of knowing where you are at. To me this betting pattern reeks of AK or AQ with one heart. UTG+2 trys to steal the pot with a pot bet after raising the flop,. He picks up a decent heart draw on the turn makes another bet at it, this time thinking he is on a semi bluff with a lot of outs to improve, and then catches hit A on the river.
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Postby Kalle » Fri Apr 01, 2005 3:03 am

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Postby Rhound50 » Fri Apr 01, 2005 3:18 am

Last edited by Rhound50 on Fri Apr 01, 2005 4:14 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby TheUnknownPlayer » Fri Apr 01, 2005 4:08 am

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Postby droqqa » Fri Apr 01, 2005 11:27 am

Thanks for the replies, guys.

In this example, I am UTGC, and CO is my opponent. He called my river bet, and won, as I held [7s] [6s] . I usually like to go for one big bluff per session, and I felt the timing was right on this one. I had played so tight until this point - my raises were getting a lot of respect. I really like the flop - I have a chance to hit my straight. When my opponent called quickly, I knew I was beat. The turn was not my favorite card - but my opponents bet was weak - I could tell he didnt like the card either. If he had a set, he would have fired more, fearing I had a hand like [Ah] [Kc]. A straight would have pumped it too. There was an outside chance he held the flush - but I didnt feel it here for some reason. I put him on a hand like TT or JJ. Good enough to just call a raise with - but not good enough to pump the pot with a lot of chips. I figured that any 7, 6 or 5 would make my hand good. Plus, there were several scare cards that could come on the river, so I could bet and drive him off his hand - any heart, an A or K.

With the A on the river, I knew I had to bet in order to win. The 1/2 pot bet here seemed appropriate - my opponent only had about 375 left now. If I put him all-in, it would of looked like a bluff - I bet 250, making it look like I wanted to be called, but still a substantial enough bet for him to fold to.

He let the clock go down to one second and called. He showed the two black queens and scooped. I couldnt believe that he called. I made a note and moved on.

My table had been playing so tight - It was very disappointing to see the one big move I had been planning go down in flames. I doubt this guy had a read on me - I just think I ran into someone that was too stubborn to fold - I guess I should have picked up on this.

D
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Postby Kalle » Fri Apr 01, 2005 11:41 am

Interesting hand. thx for posting.
Against a thinking player the river bluff will work more than 33 % of the time
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Postby palman » Fri Apr 01, 2005 11:55 am

Your bet is really suspicious here, that is likely why he called.

As far as online play, most times that I see a bet - check/call - bet pattern, it is often a bluff unless an obvious draw got there. Would you lead out on the river with an AK, AQ, etc., or even call on the turn? No. It was a great call by the CO reading you as betting the scare card.

You wouldn't lead out with a weak ace, so you can't be value betting 2 pair. If you're THAT tight you wouldn't raise a low set. So the only real holdings here are AA or a bluff.

I suppose a flush is a possibility... but check-call and then lead out on the river? Again, seems suspicious.

I suppose if the UTG player was thinking that the CO would read his bet as a bluff due to the scare card, hoping to induce a call from Q's-J's, he could be value betting an Ace..... but I think that's just getting a little more sophisticated than I usually consider my opponnents.
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Postby k3nt » Fri Apr 01, 2005 12:43 pm

The way you played this hand is exactly the way people will play AK down at the $50 level. They love their hand and can't give it up on the turn. With a flush draw they will play it that way for sure. And then they will bet the river because so many people can't fold a high pocket pair to one river scare card.

Reading the hand, I was sure that QQ was behind. I am pretty sure I would have folded QQ in that spot.

I definitely don't want to play against drogga, I know that much. Great betting. IMHO, the guy was either a genius or a moron to call you.
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Postby palman » Fri Apr 01, 2005 1:15 pm

Isn't it safe to say that AK would be folded on the turn here, considering both the tightness of the player and the stakes being played/skill level.
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Postby droqqa » Fri Apr 01, 2005 1:19 pm

Palman -

I see your point, however, dont you think a hand like [Ah] [Kc] would have called getting 3:1 odds, with 2 (possibly live) overcards and the nut flush draw?

D
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Postby palman » Fri Apr 01, 2005 1:54 pm

Yes, it would have. But what reason would the AK have for betting the river? What hand is the UTG player putting the CO on that value betting an AK would make any sense? (Aside from what I said earlier, making it look like a steal with a scare card to induce Q's or J's, etc to call.... but this is really rare because the player on the turn could have a set/flush,etc..... very few would have the courage to value bet with just AK, since there might be 2 reasonable hands that COULD call that you'd be beating... KK/QQ, and even plenty would fold KK/QQ so value betting AK on the river is clearly -EV.)

In a 25NL game I fold without hesitation. In a 1000 NL I give calling with the Q's serious consideration.

Lets run down the potential hands UTG could have.....

AK - Value betting river is clearly -EV. There's no hand that will call that doesn't beat you (except some may call with KK/QQ. AQ doesn't call on the flop otherwise the whole point of mentioning that UTG is tight is moot, lower aces fold preflop)
KK/QQ - No real point in betting the river here. If AQ doesn't call on the flop, the only A an opponnent can have is AK, which they will call with. If that's the case, a bet on the river doesn't get a single hand that beats you to fold, or a single hand you beat to call.
Flush - Possible, although I'd expect some sort of bet on the turn out of a flush (either lead out or check-raise), but could have been a tricky play.
Set- Definately think a set bets big on the turn.
AA- Another possible holding.
Bluff - Any other 2 cards besides AA or a flush.

So, when you're holding QQ.... you should be able to narrow it down to AA, someone check-calling a flush on the turn after leading out, or a bluff. Is UTG going to have AA or a flush 66% of the time? That seems a little high to me. I make the call getting about 2:1.
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Postby droqqa » Fri Apr 01, 2005 2:26 pm

Palman -

You make a good point about AK not betting the river - I will take that into consideration for next time. :)

I dont feel good about checking this down on the river either. I set up this play all session - there has to be a way to take this down and get the queens to fold. Suggestions?

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Postby palman » Fri Apr 01, 2005 4:35 pm

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