by palman » Sat Apr 02, 2005 11:28 am
Ice- I actually don't mind his play as much on the turn.
I think his opponnent is short enough, and his hand is strong enough, that he won't be able to drive him out with a bet on the turn. The turn definately isn't going to make his opponnent fold most any of his possible holdings.
So, since I prefer a check to a bet here..... I fold if LP makes a strong enough bet, and call if he makes a weak enough one. He was getting JUST about enough odds due to the bet being small to call on the turn. There could also be a case for check-raising I suppose.
I think it's a situation where check-calling, check-folding, and check-raising all are very very close in EV.
An analysis of the EV of the three plays is incredibly complex, due to potentially being able to bet the black Q's off the hand if a fourth heart hits, what to do if you hit one of your outs and it's a heart, etc. Furthermore, the proper amount to bet if the fourth heart hits is a tricky situation as well, as is whether you should bluff it in the first place. The amount required to bet to drive off your opponnent is directly related to the implied profitibility of the call.
Droqqa - One big key is never to get discouraged about a failed bluff. It's easy to think of yourself as a genius when the bluffs work, and an idiot when they don't. Fact of the matter is that it is an incomplete information game and no matter how good you are at bluffing, you still fail on a LOT of bluffs. The analysis I did on your opponnents likely holdings I could not do nearly as quickly on the spot, and I myself might have tried to bet the A as a scare card. If I had 5 minutes to make a decision I wouldn't. But with 20 seconds, I might have done the exact same thing. I won't now though that I've discussed/thought about it here =)