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I knew I was winning...damn river :(

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I knew I was winning...damn river :(

Postby kennyg » Tue Apr 05, 2005 7:26 am

Interesting hand:

I knew I was winning on the turn. At first I thought he had a set...but I knew this player..and his bet on the flop representing something else.

Ultimate Bet No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (9 handed)

saw flop|saw showdown

UTG+1 ($88)
MP1 ($184.40)
MP2 ($223.50)
MP3 ($207.30)
CO ($200)
Button ($197)
SB ($225.55)
Hero ($190.50)
UTG ($336.60)

Preflop: Hero is BB with [5d], [9s].
4 folds, MP3 calls $2, 3 folds, Hero checks.

Flop: ($5) [9c], [Tc], [5s] (2 players)
Hero bets $5, MP3 raises to $10, Hero raises to $30, MP3 raises to $50, Hero calls $20.

Turn: ($105) [4h] (2 players)
Hero bets $125, MP3 bets $125, Hero bets $250.

River: ($480) [Jc] (2 players)

Final Pot: $480

Results in white below:
Hero has 5d 9s (two pair, nines and fives).
MP3 has 7c 8c (straight flush, jack high).
Outcome: MP3 wins $480.
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Postby Mad Genius » Tue Apr 05, 2005 7:44 am

Turn action is confusing. If you think you are ahead on the flop why didn't you push?
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Postby kennyg » Tue Apr 05, 2005 8:15 am

I wanted to see what the turn card was before all my money was in. Call me cautious..but looking back on it..our percentages were very close on the flop.
"I'll take KennyGs advice before Sklanskys every time. "
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Postby Kalle » Tue Apr 05, 2005 8:17 am

Very well played.
I think kenny only called on flop because he wanted to see a save turn card before committing more $ (right?). TUP explains this in another post.
Kenny was only a small favourite to win the hand on flop - 51-49. But he got his money in as a much bigger favourite - 68-32 - on turn. If kenny push all in on turn MP's call is -ev and he makes a mistake by calling. It wouldn’t be a mistake by MP if kenny pushed on flop and MP called.
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Postby kennyg » Tue Apr 05, 2005 8:23 am

thanks kalle...you must have wrote that post right as i was typing my reply to MG. and yeah..thats exactly what i was thinking..well..not quite as complex...but the same basic principle :)
"I'll take KennyGs advice before Sklanskys every time. "
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Postby Mad Genius » Tue Apr 05, 2005 9:34 am

Fair enough. The only problem I have with that is that there are simply too many scare cards that can hit. Any paint, club, Ten should be a major scare card for you, and similarly it might not get you much more action if the card doesn't help villian. Still, I don't see a problem with your line after thinking about it for a while. Tough beat.
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Postby iceman5 » Tue Apr 05, 2005 9:44 am

Almost every time Ive gotten all in after multiple raises back and forth and I have 2 pair in the blind, the other guy has had a set.

I still lead out but if I get raised, I usually play a little more carefully now.
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Postby Mad Genius » Tue Apr 05, 2005 9:48 am

Have you noticed how bottom 2pr gets overrated bigtime by crappy players? I find it to be really weak, especially in multiway pots where almost any card can potentially kill you. Since only 4 cards can help you, and since your two pairs are both low, any high card or any straight/flush card is always a scare card. I don't have stats on this, but I'd be willing to bet that more people are losing money by flopping bottom 2pr out of the blind that winning money.
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