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Correct Set Laydown?

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Correct Set Laydown?

Postby wrenny » Thu Apr 07, 2005 8:35 pm

First time poster, great site you have going here iceman et al.

About 10 hands into a $50 NLHE party 10 handed table.

I'm dealt 9c9h on the button. 5 limpers & 1 poster to me. I raise to $2. Blinds fold, 4 callers.

Flop: [ 9s, Ts, Qs ]

Check, Bet 42.20 (all-in), call, fold.

I have 48.75 and fold.

Turn: Ah
River: 3s

Bettor shows [Qd,Td], caller shows [Ks,Qh].

Did I play this correcly?

Thanks for the input, wrenny
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Postby iceman5 » Thu Apr 07, 2005 8:45 pm

Hmmm, I wouldnt raise with 99 after 5 limpers. Its almost certain you'll get 1-3 callers (4 in this case). 99 is basically useless against 4 players unless you have a set.

He went all in for $42 into a $14 or so pot? And got called?

Thats a tough one. I would be 99 % sure I was ahead of the 1st guy. Once he gets called I would probably fold. Theres a good chance the caller has a higher set or more likely a made flush or made straight.

The 1st guy isnt going all in without 2 pair or a pair aand draw or something like that.

If one guy has the flush or straight, you still have outs to fill up, but if the other guy has a set, youre dead and if he has 2 pair, you have very few outs left.

I think its a fairly easy fold.
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Postby wrenny » Thu Apr 07, 2005 9:02 pm

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Postby kennyg » Fri Apr 08, 2005 10:02 am

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Postby devilmollusk » Fri Apr 08, 2005 12:17 pm

My only thought is that you are getting pretty good odds on a call. Though your raise was not the play I would make with a medium PP (agree with Ice 100%), it does narrow the possibility you are up against a made flush. So if we can all agree we probably beat the first guy, we have to look at what the second guy might have. So this is the first limper who called this, correct? Absent any reads on this guy, it would be hard to make this call. Still, there is a lot of money out there, and a chance you have the best hand.

I am not at all surprised that he made that call with top pair and a flush draw. People do this all the time. Still, he could easily have had the flush. I probably would have made the call for the simple reason that you have only 1 buy-in, and if you win this pot you are in a great position to make lots more money. This was discussed a bit in a thread some days ago... the fact that playing with a big stack at these NL tables is +ev in itself.
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Postby Mad Genius » Sat Apr 09, 2005 2:22 am

I don't mind the raise at all. As a matter of fact, I think I really like it. It's a great pot-builder and if you hit a set the pot will already be pretty big, as opposed to trying to build a pot from scratch in an unraised pot.

Anyway, I it is +EV to call here. You can be reasonably sure that if you make a FH you will win the pot, which means that some 30% of the time you will win by improving. There is also a small chance your hand will hold up to be the best without improving (there is a great chance it's the best hand right now), so I'd say you have better than 1/3rd chance of winning the hand.
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Postby Yogadude » Sat Apr 09, 2005 10:56 am

I am not against raising with a small/medium pair on the button so long as you understand that it is a value raise. You are raising to make the pot bigger so if you hit your 9 you may win a huge pot.

That being said, I think I would fold here too. Heads up I would definitely call but the overcall for a big bet definitely leads me to think I am beat.
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Postby palman » Sat Apr 09, 2005 3:05 pm

It is a certainty that you are beating the pusher. Do you have the caller beat 30% of the time, or I guess the question is do you win the showdown 30% of the time? I think yes, and call.
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Postby k3nt » Sat Apr 09, 2005 7:57 pm

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