by Mad Genius » Wed Apr 13, 2005 3:21 pm
A good player will be able to put kenny on something similar to what he had. Think about it. He leads the flop. He will most likely have TP, 2pr, or a draw. Villian then calls, which logically we can assume to be TP or more likely a diamond draw. Why then, would hero check the turn if he had a made hand? Villian would have no reason to bet a draw here, given that he can take a free card, so why would hero (who we know to be a good player) check? Would he really lead out the flop with 2pr (which tells us already that hero doesn't like slowplaying hands) and then check the turn? If the situation was reversed and he check-called the flop and then lead the turn, it would be easy to put him on a big hand, but in this particular situation, it seems obvious to me that hero would be drawing.
A better way to play the turn would be to bet 2/3pot-full pot, or check-call. By leading the turn again, your opponent most definately would not be able to have you on a draw. Most players won't call again with Ax or a draw there, enabling you to pick up the pot the majority of the time. In addition, even if you are called you can bet any river (including a J, Ten, and diamond) and again have good folding equity. The checkraise on the other hand is so dangerous because as I pointed out, a lot of good players will read you squarely on your hand (or close to it) and pop it right back to $60 or $70, leaving you to make a tough call. In addition, a diamond would be a much better card to bet on the river if you lead out both times, as they won't be able to put you on a diamond draw as easily.
There are times where checkraising with a draw can be a good idea. I just don't like it when you preceed it with a flop bet. I've seen too many people do it, and even though occasionally you will find yourself up against a set, I find that most good players will play their sets and 2prs straightforwardly and bet them each street that it's way more likely to be a draw in a situation like this.
Just my 2c.