Being serious here for a change...i used to write a financial newsletter, had all of about 9 subscribers, ...but in 1999 i was telling everyone to get out of the stock market, as it was a bubble and was going to burst...'those that don't know their history are doomed to repeat it'...
Even a blind hog will find an acorn every now and then, and the stock market DID burst...as did the Nikkei market (the JApanese's market did in 1990...and it hasn't come back and is still sideways) Same will happen to ours, i think, sideways for many more years to come...or further down...

Inflation is WITH us now inspite of what Communist News Network tells us...around 15-18% i figure...and the new current bubble is REAL ESTATE...starting BIG on the West Coast...i have a cousin in S. Cal, his house is up double from 3 years ago (that's a rate of about 24% a year...here in Phx, i got lucky to buy a house 2 years ago, it's up
85% in 2 years...there's a buying frenzy going on right now here in the Valley of the Sun...people are putting up houses and they're getting 5-6 bids within a week, and the houses are going for MORE than the asking price...how do i know? I'm cashing out of the bubble before it bursts (knock on wood) I put mine up...at higher than i should have, and it sold in a week just 2 days ago...just holding my breath till the closing date...
So...when, not if, the real estate bubble does burst too, a lot of recent or new homebuyers will get their heads handed to them...I realize it's probably tough, but if anyone is able, sell your house if you're in a bubble/frenzy market area... (like also happened in Texas, what, 20 years ago?)

I've gotten so much out of this forum, i'm willing to share my thoughts gratis to anyone interested... realizing most won't be, but it's here nevertheless...

That may be the best way of all to invest MVP! heh What's this about bankrupcy law?

Norton, it may be fortuitous for you...i'm 2 years in July, that's why am holding my breath.

Cactus Jack, yessir, good point, i quess the frenzy is in the warm regions...same thing here, by the time the house is finished, it's worth mucho bucks more...
Bubbles tend to go on higher than what people think, so it definately COULD go higher and longer, nevertheless i'm cashing out.

...it can't burst? Well, that's what they were saying about the our stock market in 1998 and 1999... all it will take is for Mr. GreenJeans to start raising those rates...It's like a cowboy riding his horse hard, being chased by a band of wild Indians...he can't stop, he can't outrun them forever, but he sure can't stop...all he can do is ride hard and fast as hell for as long as he can, as he seems to have no alternative (actually the best thing he could do is come to a sudden stop, get off his horse, shoot it dead and hide behind it while he shoots as many Indians as he can, it's his only chance, albeit slim) ...same thing with our economy and all the fiat cash and credit being pumped into it...Mr GreenJeans knows raising rates will cause a big crash, so he dares not...for now...eventually he may have to stop, bite the bullet and start raising them and it won't be pretty...OR some unforeseen event will do it...thus invoking el Presidente to pull his national emergency powers out.
For those that don't know, the US $ has plummeted about 44% in the last few years...that's 44%!!! (Tetsuo, Ricadoon, et al know this) If you switched over to the Euro, or Swiss Franc or AU, you would have made an easy 44%, and meanwhile bank CD's are paying, what, 2%?
Cactus Jack is right...our economy is all based on false credit...it's very fragile right now, a tower of poker cards 8 stories tall in search of a gust of wind. TBC...

I don't have much official knowledge about the subject, but have read a fair amount about the real estate bubble arguments. And before I continue, I'm not in as hot a market as southern california - but all of Massachusetts has this same kind of raises (I sold my condo after 2 years for 100k profit when I had bought in for 80k. The house I bought for $270k was on the market 3 years previously for $180k).

Essentially, the belief that I hold onto, and that most of the analysts that I read hold onto, is that a real estate market may burst in isolated instances, or even in some fairly widespread instances - but not on the country as a whole. Of course, you only care about your particular area - so that's the bubble which would affect you should it burst.

From my point of view - a bubble burst in Massachusetts would seem fairly unlikely - because the growth largely has to do with expansion of people out from Boston who commute to Boston - mostly well-paid, well-to-do professionals. This is indicative of the fact that the family income in the town in which I live is far above my own family income. In order for the bubble to burst on my market, business would probably have to leave the Boston area - and for what its worth - I don't see that happening given how entrenched it is.

In California or Arizona - I don't think you necessarily have the benefit of entrenched cities and businesses that won't be leaving any time soon - for that matter land, I would expect is still pretty expansive out there (and here I'm really guessing) - while here the expensive properties are located on .1 of an acre or less...

Just more fuel for the fire.

very good and valid point Star...areas where the frenzy is biggest will be hit the hardest and other areas, like Kentucky, where i'm from originally, won't be hit quite as much...i remember my cousin in Texas, Dallas area, back in about 1980 bought a house for $120,000 during the oil boom then, and a year later it was worth about $80,000...eventually, like 20 years later, it came back.
Stock market 1996 to 1999, people were making about 35% per year(another cousin was even braggin about how well he was doing in 'the market' ...and he doesn't know the difference between a bond and a stock or what a mutual fund is...and my ex was braggin how much she'd made recently in 'the market' and she didn't know the difference between the DJIA and the FBI ...heh, she lost 50% too in 2000 )
Now, in real estate, people are making about 30-45% a year, (and i'm hearing the same thing...everybody and their brother is talking and braggin about how much their making and how much their house has gone up...when you hear barbers, taxi drivers, and grocery bag boys talking and braggin, it's time to get out of Dodge)

where's the next 30-45% per year going to be?? in the hard stuff, and i'm not talking about Jack Daniels...altho, hmmmm, that's a thought

As Americans, we've become a country of excess and a bit greedy, (maybe more than a bit) That's what's driving this latest boom... some fellar named George said "those that don't know their history are doomed to repeat it"

Can it continue? ... we'll see... heh, you heard it here first!

MVP, lmoa, it's Tica, not Nica... Don't call them a Nica, in Spanish that means "wild ignorant whore that sleeps in a rainforest"
( just helping you out buddy, not being a smart_ss....well, maybe a little bit)

Dang, there goes that NG again...up 16% in 2 days...and i'm fresh out.