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Playing KK for a set

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Playing KK for a set

Postby Zarathustra » Thu Apr 21, 2005 7:34 am

Okay, obviously you generally don't play KK for a set, but a similar scenario came up in the "Calling raises with AK" thread and I thought more about it in the shower this morning -- unfortunately, that's where I do my best analysis (instead of at the table).

I believe there is a case that calling a solid reraiser with KK is not just an "okay, once-in-awhile for deception" play, but is very often the RIGHT play.

Here's the hypothetical (NL, full ring):

EP opens for a raise and MP (a very solid NL player, we'll call him Iceguy) makes a large reraise. You have KK in LP. What's your play?

I think your best play is to just call here. The hands Iceguy could reasonably have are high pairs (AA-QQ) or AK. (Note: Since I don't know how Iceman actually plays his hands, don't skewer me if my assumptions don't jive with his actual reraising standards, let's just assume "Iceguy" is tight, aggressive, but doesn't reraise EP raisers with less than premium NL hands.) Iceguy doesn't reraise with JJ or less here (and quite possibly not even QQ) as there are players yet to act behind or the EP raiser can re-reraise him off his hand (which would be bad since Iceguy could have busted him if he could see the flop). A reraise with a non-pair less than AK is almost out of the question, although AQs might be a possibility.

So, what happens if you re-raise your KK from LP here? AA by EP or Iceguy will push all-in and you'll make the crying call with KK knowing you're likely beat. Then you'll lament the fact that you lost another stack with KK to AA and curse your bad luck. If Iceguy has AK, he'll fold probably, and if he has QQ, he'll probably call and play it for a set or consider folding depending on size of your raise (which is why he wouldn't want to have re-raised in the first place).

But what if you just call? Now, when the flop comes say rags and Iceguy bets, you might raise if the stacks are deep enough and then if he pushes allin, you can get away knowing he had the goods. If he just calls a raise, theres a good chance he might check down his AA. If he had less than AA, then you win a nice pot here. But you also can just fold the flop, too, by playing for a set. You didn't invest too much preflop all things considered, and you already suspect he has AA anyway. If the flop is rags and you made that big preflop call, he has to be scared of betting the pot with AK since its quite likely you have an overpair. You could also just call down with KK. Your calls will scare him a bit and he may slowdown, thus you are trying to get to a cheap showdown and if he has AA at least you held on to some of your stack. But if you hit a K, you know you are likely taking his stack if he has either AA (or a very big chunk of it if he has AK).

Now, you might say, aren't you just playing KK like 33 here? Well, basically yes. But theres a fair chance you can still win on the flop without a set if it comes anything else scary. If Iceguy actually did have QQ, he might shrivel up if an A flops. You are using both the disguise of your hand, as well as your position, to see how he reacts. And remember, his most likely hand here (in my opinion) is AA (given that you already have two kings). So a re-raise is going to send all the chips to the middle preflop with you most likely a 4:1 dog.

Well, I realize you might be giving something up here, but here's a case where I think a very good NL player can distinguish himself from a decent NL player by minimiziing damage and maximizing gain with KK against a likely AA. Am I crazy? Stating the obvious? Too weak?
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Postby iceman5 » Thu Apr 21, 2005 7:52 am

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Postby eliteprodigy » Thu Apr 21, 2005 8:50 am

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Postby MVPSPORTS » Thu Apr 21, 2005 9:53 am

I'd still get all my money in PF... That seems like a good stragegy against GOOD, EXPERIENCED NL players, most of which aren't playing against me at the TGC $100NL tables... If I go allin preflop, I'd say it's about a 75% chance (I have no numbers to back me up... just seems that way) that whoever calls doesn't have AA... In a B&M game for $500000 on the WPT, maybe that'll come into affect, but I just don't think the online players are good enough to warrant worrying about it...
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Postby Zarathustra » Thu Apr 21, 2005 11:39 am

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