by k3nt » Thu Apr 21, 2005 10:31 am
Excession, you're definitely right: it's probably -EV to call your push in this situation over the long run.
But people will do it anyway. That's Ice's point. People love to call. And they especially love to call when they have a big hand and they have a chance of winning a big pot against a bluffer or someone who thinks their TPTK is good.
I play lower limits against dumber players, of course. But any time I put an opponent on AA, I do NOT give them credit for UNDERSTANDING that I put them on AA. (I hope that makes sense.) So when I push with my set, I expect them to call because they may think that I think they don't have AA. Or, more likely, they're just not thinking that carefully and they are pot committed (in their mind!) the minute they raise preflop with their AA.
Other possibiltiies: he thinks you put him on AK. He puts you on a semibluff of some sort (76s is possible here). He doesn't think but just refuses to let go of his cards. Etc.