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Would you push?

Postby excession » Thu Apr 21, 2005 6:44 am

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Postby eliteprodigy » Thu Apr 21, 2005 6:56 am

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Postby Kalle » Thu Apr 21, 2005 7:07 am

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Postby iceman5 » Thu Apr 21, 2005 7:25 am

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Re: Would you push?

Postby Zarathustra » Thu Apr 21, 2005 7:50 am

Thus Spoke Zarathustra
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Postby iceman5 » Thu Apr 21, 2005 7:58 am

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Postby excession » Thu Apr 21, 2005 10:22 am

well the reason is that this same player folded AA or KK to a $70 re-raise in exactly the same situation 1 hour before - he laid down his big pre-flop pair (he had reraised pre-flop and a player on 3% PFR doesn't do that without a big pair usaully AA or KK) when he thought he was facing a set and the player he laid it down to ws much looser than me...
his WtsD% is almost single figures ... he likes to make good lay downs..

But my stack is too small to run the bluff?

There's $75 in the pot now - $175 if I bet - it would cost him $70 more to call

So he's getting 2.5:1. If he reads me for a set he does have 2 outs twice (8%) so he is right to call if it's likely that I'm bluffing more than about 1/4of the time?

Now honestly how many of you would lay it down and how many call?
Last edited by excession on Thu Apr 21, 2005 10:35 am, edited 3 times in total.
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Postby k3nt » Thu Apr 21, 2005 10:31 am

Excession, you're definitely right: it's probably -EV to call your push in this situation over the long run.

But people will do it anyway. That's Ice's point. People love to call. And they especially love to call when they have a big hand and they have a chance of winning a big pot against a bluffer or someone who thinks their TPTK is good.

I play lower limits against dumber players, of course. But any time I put an opponent on AA, I do NOT give them credit for UNDERSTANDING that I put them on AA. (I hope that makes sense.) So when I push with my set, I expect them to call because they may think that I think they don't have AA. Or, more likely, they're just not thinking that carefully and they are pot committed (in their mind!) the minute they raise preflop with their AA.

Other possibiltiies: he thinks you put him on AK. He puts you on a semibluff of some sort (76s is possible here). He doesn't think but just refuses to let go of his cards. Etc.
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Postby Zarathustra » Thu Apr 21, 2005 11:51 am

Thus Spoke Zarathustra
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Postby excession » Thu Apr 21, 2005 12:34 pm

yes i'm risking $100 to win $75 - he needs to fold almost 60% of the time for it to be +EV for me - in teh cold light of day that doesnt look so good..
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Postby APerfect10 » Thu Apr 21, 2005 1:48 pm

Preying on the weak tight? :wink:
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Postby excession » Thu Apr 21, 2005 2:44 pm

just the weak :)
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