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Hand quiz

Postby iceman5 » Thu Apr 21, 2005 11:34 pm

$2/$4 NL

UTG raises $20, MP calls, next guy reraises to $75. Youre on the button wth QQ and call. (everyone has full $400 stacks). UTG and MP fold.

Heads up to the flop. The pot is 196

The flop comes J74 rainbow. The preflop reraiser checks. You bet $80. he now check raises all in to $325 total.

1) Do you call getting almost 2-1?
2) What does he have?
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Postby APerfect10 » Fri Apr 22, 2005 12:04 am

1. I fold every single time.
2. Well, AA, KK are beating you. JJ is beating you too. There arent too many hands that QQ are beating here. My first guess would be JJ but he could be an overaggressive playing AA or KK very badly IMHO.
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Postby briachek » Fri Apr 22, 2005 12:32 am

given the information given, I agree with AP on both accounts. Are there any reads on these players you want to give us that helps out a bit?
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Postby Mad Genius » Fri Apr 22, 2005 1:45 am

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Postby Kalle » Fri Apr 22, 2005 2:30 am

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Postby MBuckler » Fri Apr 22, 2005 4:32 am

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Postby iceman5 » Fri Apr 22, 2005 7:25 am

OK, this was very easy. But it just goes to show that BTPers are much better players than the avg Party $2/$4 player.

This is an actual hand. My opponent had QQ. I was the preflop reraiser with KK.

Aperfect10, why do you think KK was played very badly? I was sure he had AA, QQ or AK. If I push all in which is what most people would do there with KK, he will fold AK and should fold QQ (obviously this guy wouldnt)

If I check, then AK might push all in and QQ might bet. A free card doesnt hurt me. He can only have 2 or 3 outs.
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Postby Stapher » Fri Apr 22, 2005 8:09 am

If you don't fold the best hand every once in awhile, you're probably not playing your best poker
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Postby briachek » Fri Apr 22, 2005 9:36 am

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Postby iceman5 » Fri Apr 22, 2005 9:37 am

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Postby APerfect10 » Fri Apr 22, 2005 11:36 am

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Postby iceman5 » Fri Apr 22, 2005 12:37 pm

How else are you going to play KK there when the pot is already $200?

Im not going to fold to his $80. Yeah he could have AA or JJ, but Im committed. If I just call, hes going all in on the turn unless and I still learned nothing about his hand.....

If a king hits, I may not stack him
If an ace hits, I dont know what to do.

I have to get all in on the flop. If I push all in, he may fold QQ. And he will fold AK.
I cant see any better way to play this unless you have a better idea.
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Postby devilmollusk » Fri Apr 22, 2005 12:58 pm

I can't fault Ice's play there. I would think a set is rather unlikely for him, unless it is JJ. He is representing a big PP by his betting. Also his 1/2 pot bet smells even more like an overpair to me. I can see checking the top set behind in this situation with no draw on the board. Getting into his mind for a second I think he is putting you on AJ here. His bet reads like a invitation for TPTK to raise. Plus he probably thinks he can get a call from KJ or JT. Obviously he either did not put you on KK or AA or he just didn't care.

For him to bet like this pre-flop with 77 or 44 is simply reckless, and I would not fear this at all. Given all this the only two holdings you fear are AA and JJ. AA is a real possibility, again JJ much less so given his flop bet. Against a really solid player this play is probably -ev. He will fold QQ and take all your money with AA. But against the typical player at this level, who could have anything on down to 99 (I saw this yesterday), this play is +ev.
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Postby APerfect10 » Fri Apr 22, 2005 1:04 pm

I would bet 2/3 - 3/4 pot on the flop and see what his actions are.

What could he be holding that he'll call your all-in?
Most likely: AA, KK, JJ, 77, 44
Unlikely: QQ, AK, Jx

What would he call a 2/3-3/4 pot bet with?
Most likely: QQ, AK, Jx, 77, 44

What would he reraise all-in with?
Most likely: AA, KK, JJ, 77, 44
Possibly: QQ
Unlikely: AK

My point is not too many hands that you are beating will call your all-in. Plus you have a 1/8 chance of losing to a flopped set. I cant see this being an +EV move in the long run. You would need to have enough QQ, Jx callers in addition to the amount that you've trapped and he folded to offset the amount of times you are losing to AA or a set.

Once again, if you can successfully put him on a hand you are beating this is a great play as you are extracting more money than you would if you bet the flop and he folded. Sometimes correct plays cannot be clearly made without knowing the opponent.
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Postby APerfect10 » Fri Apr 22, 2005 1:07 pm

devilmollusk, I think you are mistaking the players. QQ was on the button and cold called Ice's (KK) reraise to $75. A cold call here isnt something I would do with 77 or 44 but I would hardly call it wreckless if he can possibly take (2) $400 stacks.
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