by APerfect10 » Fri Apr 22, 2005 1:04 pm
I would bet 2/3 - 3/4 pot on the flop and see what his actions are.
What could he be holding that he'll call your all-in?
Most likely: AA, KK, JJ, 77, 44
Unlikely: QQ, AK, Jx
What would he call a 2/3-3/4 pot bet with?
Most likely: QQ, AK, Jx, 77, 44
What would he reraise all-in with?
Most likely: AA, KK, JJ, 77, 44
Possibly: QQ
Unlikely: AK
My point is not too many hands that you are beating will call your all-in. Plus you have a 1/8 chance of losing to a flopped set. I cant see this being an +EV move in the long run. You would need to have enough QQ, Jx callers in addition to the amount that you've trapped and he folded to offset the amount of times you are losing to AA or a set.
Once again, if you can successfully put him on a hand you are beating this is a great play as you are extracting more money than you would if you bet the flop and he folded. Sometimes correct plays cannot be clearly made without knowing the opponent.