Advanced search

Fold or Push? Your thoughts please.

Hand analysis. Post your trouble hands here

Moderators: iceman5, LPF Police Department

Fold or Push? Your thoughts please.

Postby DaHitDogg » Mon Apr 25, 2005 2:38 pm

Opponent is fairly solid if only a bit loose. What do you do in response to the check raise on the flop? I thought it was a push or fold situation.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 max, 4 handed)

Button ($199.4)
SB ($197.75)
BB ($99.4)
Hero ($125.3)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with [Ad], [Kd]. SB posts a blind of $0.5.
Hero raises to $5, 2 folds, BB raises to $14, Hero calls $10.

Flop: ($30.50) [Ac], [9h], [7d] (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $25, BB raises to $50, Hero calls $85.30 (All-In), BB calls $34.40 (All-In).

Turn: ($225.20) [2s] (2 players, 2 all-in)

River: ($225.20) [5c] (2 players, 2 all-in)

Final Pot: $225.20

Results in white below:
BB has Ah As (three of a kind, aces).
Hero has Ad Kd (one pair, aces).
Outcome: BB wins $199.30. Hero wins $25.90.
User avatar
DaHitDogg
 
Posts: 417
Joined: Fri Mar 04, 2005 3:42 pm

Postby iceman5 » Mon Apr 25, 2005 2:57 pm

I wouldnt even bet the flop. Odds are that he has AA, KK, QQ or AK. Most people wont reraise a 5BB raise from UTG with less than that.

I would say at least 80% of the time its AA or KK.

So why bet the flop when he checks? If he has KK, you can give him a free card. If you check it back, he will probably bet the turn thinking you dont have an ace either. Its 20-1 for him to hit a K at the turn so you can afordt to let him have one free card.

Same with QQ

He'll bet the flop if he has AK

AA is liable check the flop also, hoping that you'll take a stab at it. Hes not calling your all in with KK or QQ and since he didnt bet the flop, he doesnt have AK either.

I wouldnt have bet the flop, but if I did, I fold to his check raise. Theres no way he has AQ which is the only good scenario for you.
iceman5 [As]
User avatar
iceman5
Semi Pro (Online)
 
Posts: 13875
Joined: Sat Oct 30, 2004 6:49 pm
Location: Texas

Postby devilmollusk » Mon Apr 25, 2005 3:33 pm

If he is on AA or KK 80% of the time, isn't it helpful to know which? I agree you fold to the raise, but I would bet there. It is not so much that you fear the free card, but you really need to know what you are up against, unless this is just a check/fold situation.
"This is where you type something witty" -- Anonymous
User avatar
devilmollusk
 
Posts: 335
Joined: Wed Mar 23, 2005 5:52 pm

Postby iceman5 » Mon Apr 25, 2005 3:38 pm

I didnt explain my point very well. I guess what I meant was that if Hero is willing to play for his stack which he obviously was, then he should give Villain a chance to bet KK 1st before raising.

If Hero checks the flop back, Villain will bet KK at the turn.

If hero is tying to figure out which he has, then I think he found out when he got check raised.
iceman5 [As]
User avatar
iceman5
Semi Pro (Online)
 
Posts: 13875
Joined: Sat Oct 30, 2004 6:49 pm
Location: Texas

Postby devilmollusk » Mon Apr 25, 2005 3:47 pm

That I agree with. He should fold to the check-raise. But I would just as soon know which of the 3 PP's I am up against. I think if it is KK or QQ you probably continue to get some money out of him with value bets down to the river, and you can bank that extra money you got from betting the flop.
"This is where you type something witty" -- Anonymous
User avatar
devilmollusk
 
Posts: 335
Joined: Wed Mar 23, 2005 5:52 pm

Postby iceman5 » Mon Apr 25, 2005 3:58 pm

You thing he'll call your flop bet with KK or QQ? That would be hard to believe if the guy is any good at all.

Some guys might call the flop with KK hoping you have QQ, but hes not going to get to showdown with KK.
iceman5 [As]
User avatar
iceman5
Semi Pro (Online)
 
Posts: 13875
Joined: Sat Oct 30, 2004 6:49 pm
Location: Texas

Postby devilmollusk » Mon Apr 25, 2005 4:00 pm

We're at 50NL? Playing 25NL I would say 1/3 of the time a guy will call me down with a big PP like that facing an ace on the board.
"This is where you type something witty" -- Anonymous
User avatar
devilmollusk
 
Posts: 335
Joined: Wed Mar 23, 2005 5:52 pm

Postby iceman5 » Mon Apr 25, 2005 4:02 pm

Well then, he'll be at $50NL for a long time....and making alot of deposits.
iceman5 [As]
User avatar
iceman5
Semi Pro (Online)
 
Posts: 13875
Joined: Sat Oct 30, 2004 6:49 pm
Location: Texas

Postby DaHitDogg » Mon Apr 25, 2005 4:19 pm

Actually this happened at NL100, but thanks for your comments. I really thought that I was up against AK here. I guess it's a risky way to split a pot, but I was convinced that's what he had. Ice, I liked your line and reasoning for how to play this.

BTW, I am winning at this level, albeit only at about 5PTBB/HH. I started a journal last week in the appropriate forum here at BTP.
User avatar
DaHitDogg
 
Posts: 417
Joined: Fri Mar 04, 2005 3:42 pm


Return to No Limit Hold'em Cash Games

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 3 guests

cron