by palman » Mon Apr 25, 2005 6:37 pm
I remember the hand you were talking about with middle pair and a gutshot. When I made that play, I believe the flop was 985, and I had 86. I forget the exact action on the hand, but most importantly, I only had 1 stack in front of me (or my opponnent only had 1 stack). That is a huge difference. It's almost enough of a difference that you should basically disregard any hand that involves me and a shortstack and me vs. someone who has 5+ stacks. Mainly because with a shortstack, I can make a move on a pot, or make a sizable raise that basically pot commits me on one bet. We were both deep enough that there was no way I could really pull off a similar move against you.
Furthermore, on that 985 hand, when I made the move, I generally thought I had the best hand. I don't remember if I check-raised or just raised someone whom I had position on, but there was a strong chance I had the best hand. If I didn't have the best hand, odds are he has an overpair or TPTK type hand, and I've got enough outs that I've got around a 40% chance to win the pot.
Our hand is different, If you check-raise me on the flop, there is no way I can figure I have the best hand, and furthermore if I'm behind I have to have closer to a 15% chance of winning the hand, if not less. Combine that with the fact that we both have really deep stacks, and odds are I won't make that kind of move on you.
But then again, that is my whole point of my strategy, to falsely convince people I will play the same way with 1 buyin as I will with 5. So, if that's the point of my play, certainly don't feel bad of not knowing this. In fact, you probably shouldn't be able to get in my head that easily except for the fact I am disclosing my thought process. Otherwise, you'd need a lot of table time playing with me, or practice playing the way I do to really understand the style.
But to get back to basics, simply based on my bet on the flop, you should be able to figure out my exact holding fairly accurately. Granted I do play my monsters the same way, but I'm infinately more likely to have a Q10, -KQ type hand when I make this bet. Given that, you should be able to outplay me fairly well with your holding. Furthermore, based on my bet, it's not even most likely for ME to have this holding. It is most likely for most every player to have this holding. Now, whether your opponnent will fold that hand or not is the whole puzzle. Figuring out how to get them to fold is the tricky part, but odds are a check-raise on the flop or the turn will do the trick. What's even better, is if you do it on the flop I will likely read your hand COMPLETELY wrong. If an 8 or 7 comes I won't see it coming whatsoever. I also probably won't put you on the flush draw, and could even try and bluff you with me representing the flush, which would really get you paid. If I were you, I'd check-raise the turn as long as it wasn't another Q.