Time to dust off the cobwebs here, seeing as how it's a new year and all.
After more than doubling my BR in September and then losing half of it during October and November (leaving me a little ahead of where I was at the beginning of September - see
forum/viewtopic.php?t=20550 for all the gory details), I began to have doubts as to whether or not I was really a winning player, or whether I was a break-even/losing player who was good at bonuswhoring (500BB downswings will definitely mess with your mind).
So, I'm taking a new approach to prove to myself that I can beat this game. First, I dropped down in levels (from 2/4-3/6 to .50/1). I'm way overrolled for .50/1, but my focus isn't on playing as high as I can get away with - it's on beating the game. I'm going to play 25K hands of .50/1, and if I'm winning at that point ("winning" meaning 1.5 BB/100 over that span) and happy with my stats, then I'll do the same for 1/2, and so on. Once I hit 2/4 and 3/6, I'll bump up the number ot hands to at least 50K, as those were the levels I was having trouble with. I've learned the hard way that moving up just because you have X BB or X buy-ins for the new level can be a recipe for disaster if you have major leaks in your game that were hidden because you ran good.
And, to keep from getting burned out by playing LHE all the time, I'll do the same for other games - PLO8, NLHE, and PLO - play 25K hands at the $25 level and move up from there. What would be a good target winrate for big bet games to prove that I'm "beating" that level - 5 PTBB/100?
I don't really have a set timeframe to accomplish any of this, so I don't have specific "be at level X by the end of the year" types of goals. If I can play ~16K hands per month, I should be finishing up the second level (1/2 and $50) by the end of the year.
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The 2007 Plan
Play 25,000 hands of $.50/$1 LHE with a winrate of 1.5 BB/100 or better
Play 25,000 hands of $25 PLO8 with a winrate of 5 PTBB/100 or better
Play 25,000 hands of $25 NLHE with a winrate of 5 PTBB/100 or better
Play 25,000 hands of $25 PLO with a winrate of 5 PTBB/100 or better
Lather, rinse, repeat at next level
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