by rdale » Thu Apr 28, 2005 11:15 pm
I found at the $1/$2 $200 level and below a "probing/continuation" bet has no effect except against the tight passive that are going to fold when they miss and call and not raise when they hit. Rarely do I find a good use for it, unless in position and making a free card bet, hoping to get to the river for cheap to free, as most players at that level or lower won't run a stop and go. The other issue to making it work at lower levels is that the games are riddled with loose passive calling stations which negates the value of "bluffing" if you are going to have to pound across all five board cards, having a hand is the more powerful tool.
Where I have seen more success with this type of betting is 2/4 $400 game. My theory as the reason why is that a half pot to third of the pot bet actually has some substance. I monkey around and mix up my flop betting a lot at that level, as I'm also prone to raising any pair, suited overs and connectors that I open playing six max, and I tend to vary my raise a lot more from 3x to the pot plus 5x the big blind. I find at a more tight passive table playing this way is extremely profitable and often reduces my opponents to playing pair poker, while I'm playing all kinds of goofy stuff with position and taking down an $6-18 an hour in blinds by opening with raises. Against a more aggressive table that has more skilled post flop players I cut out the monkey aggression.
There is room for these tactics in cash games, at least I see them for shorthanded play. Especially when you are just as likely to make this bet with a set as nothing. It puts you in the drivers seat for cheap, and keeps your raised pots from being stolen and makes it semi-expensive to bluff you out if they have to come in for a 1/4 buy in to make a real statement. I like being in a position where I can constantly pound at the pot, and have my opponents needing to make a hand to beat me, continuation and probing bets forces them to make a hand to play.
Edit: I employed the continuation bet tonight with decent success at a .25/.50 cash game with great success. Maybe it is just that I view them as an opportunity to outplay my opponents that I don't use it as much down there. I was also frequently raising with moderate hands when opening and betting every flop. I may have to take a look at it a little more often as it puts the same pressure on the opponent at least at that level that it does up top a few. In or out of position I can decide whether to keep hammering at the turn, or check it down. I'm starting to believe there is more room for dan's tactics, as a flopped monster looks like just another continuation bet, so you can get away cheap when you miss and someone goes ape, and really put the screws to them with the goods.