by excession » Thu May 05, 2005 6:44 am
400NL.
Unknown raises to $15 in EP. I'm the only caller in BB with JJ. We both have $400. Flop is JTx two clubs. I bet $25 into $30 pot. EP calls. Turn is a king. I bet $50. He folds.
I thought that if I checked the turn he would bet, but I really wanted his stack and if I checkraised he could get away from AA, AK without investing much.
Once I hit top set in EP egainst a guy who had been the pre-flop raiser, I would check his post-flop agression stat. Anything over 1.5 and I'm check/calling. I want him to bet into me all the way and I will lead into him on river the maximum I think he'll call.
Of course this is going to be quite scary on the turn (that King looks nasty) but inducing the bluff is the only way you are going to get a big part of his stack unless he has hit the flop too..
By the time of the turn he is losing to AA,KK,QQ, JJ,TT,AK,AQ or AJ - he has to put you on one of them -unless he is on an Ax flush draw what is he going to have that he can even think about calling you with?
Just because you hit top set don't mean you will get paid off big - he needs to have hit something too - and it doesn't look like he did.