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Did I make a weak laydown here?

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Did I make a weak laydown here?

Postby Tiburon » Thu May 05, 2005 11:27 am

Setup--GT+ has these stats on the Villain:
VP$IP 23%, PFR 6%, WtSD 11%, W$SD 100%

Ultimate Bet No-Limit Hold'em, $.50 BB (9 handed)

BB ($25.30)
UTG ($46)
UTG+1 ($16.25)
MP1 ($66.30)
MP2 ($63.10)
MP3=Villain ($30.30)
CO ($23.25)
Hero ($58.65)
SB ($48.05)

Preflop: Hero is Button with [Ac], [As].
1 fold, UTG+1 calls $0.50, 1 fold, MP2 calls $0.50, Villain calls $0.50, 1 fold, Hero raises to $1.5, SB calls $1.25, 1 fold, UTG+1 calls $1, MP2 calls $1, Villain calls $1.

Flop: ($8) [7h], [Th], [Td] (5 players)
SB checks, UTG+1 checks, MP2 checks, Villain bets $6.5, Hero calls $6.50, SB folds, UTG+1 folds, MP2 folds.

Turn: ($21) [Kd] (2 players)
Villain bets $21, Hero folds.

Final Pot: $42

Results in white below:
No showdown. Villain wins $42.
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Postby Bob314 » Thu May 05, 2005 11:53 am

NOOOO!! ACK! It hurts me inside to read this hand :?

First off, while raising 3-4 times the BB is standard, this amount needs to be modified for the amount of limpers. With 3 limpers you should have been making it around $2.50 to go. No one is going to go away for an extra dollar and you aren't going to thin the field at all.

On the flop You REALLY need to put in a raise here. I don't know what the PT acronyms mean (as I don't have it myself. maybe I should get a stiky tab of what they mean so I don't have to keep reminding myself) but even if the villain is being tricky and leading with the 10 you should be able to figure that out before all your chips are in the middle so you can get away from the hand.

You only raised once the entire hand and the one raise you made is weak. The villain doesn't put you on anything nearly as strong as A-A, which is why he is continuing to show so much strength on the turn.

VP$IP 23% (hands played preflop?)
PFR 6% (percentage of the time he raises preflop?)
WtSD 11% (went to showdown?)
W$SD 100% (won on showdown?)

I guess excession would ask something like what his numbers were for post flop aggression to better your read.
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Postby MVPSPORTS » Thu May 05, 2005 12:05 pm

Tiburon... I'm not an expert on PT, but if his wins 100% of showdowns, you can't possibly have too many hands on him, do you??? I mostly agree w/ bob... You should have raised more to get the field heads up, if possible... The worst thing you want is 5 people in on an AA hand... Also, I would've raised the flop to about 3x his bet, and gone from there... You'd be showing you had a strong hand, and if he reraised, I'd think about laying down... But, at this point, he could have anything from JJ-AA, some kind of 10... a K... basically almost anything...
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Postby excession » Thu May 05, 2005 12:18 pm

First I would ask how many hands do you have on him? :) If that W$SD of 100% is 1/1 or 2/2 you can ignore it. If it's 7/7 you need to be careful :!:

secondly I would agree that you need to raise more pre-flop in view of the limpers. My minimum raise is $2 to start and here it would be $2.50 or $3..

thirdly I would like to know his aggression on the flop - if he is passive then betting into a raiser behind might mean he really has hit his ten - he is just about loose enough with Vp$iP 23% to play AT,KT and maybe QT and JT esp if suited. to a small raise.

A player like me would be taking a shot at this with a flush draw but then my flop aggression is 3+.

In summary if his W$SD looks reliable and you have say 50+ hands adn he has low aggression I don't think a laydown on teh flop is so bad.

If he has a higher flop aggression or you don't have enough hands for a read then you need to raise on the flop to find out where you are. And not just min raise either (as that gives him easy odds to call even with a flush draw). You need to raise the pot. If your 6th sense is buzzing like crazy then you can make the laydown but I'd be too embarassed to post it here :)

When you call you indicating that you have somehting. But for all he knows that could be a flush draw. Having said that, and given his stats, I'm with you on the turn fold. Unless he is an ultra-aggressive you are most likely beaten here.
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Postby laynegt » Thu May 05, 2005 12:20 pm

Given the way the hand went, I have to believe he's got the T. I'm not sure exactly what those acronyms stand for, but he looks like a solid player. Sure, it was checked to him on the flop, but he fires out against a big field and ahead of the pf raiser. When you call on the flop, it is perhaps weak, but at least he now knows you have something. Yet on the turn he leads w/ another strong bet (justified by the drawing board), pot-committing himself, and he's clearly not scared of AK. I think you have to give it up.
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Postby iceman5 » Thu May 05, 2005 2:12 pm

iceman5 [As]
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Postby Tiburon » Thu May 05, 2005 3:12 pm

"...Every time you cold call, god kills a puppy."
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Postby poker2006 » Thu May 05, 2005 7:14 pm

I think good fold. You have to raise more preflop so you don't get called by junk, with such a small raise every 2 cards under the sun were getting odds to call.
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Postby kennyg » Fri May 06, 2005 12:24 am

I would have probably raised at least $3 preflop there with any kind of hand...including AQ (which i hate.) You'll probably still get one caller.


On the flop...I would have raised..i don't use GT+ and maybe that's a problem. Anyway..I think either a raise or a fold are both better options then calling.
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Postby excession » Fri May 06, 2005 5:39 pm

He has gone to showdown only 11% of the time he has seen the flop (6 showdowns in total) and each time he had the goods?

Fold.
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