How many hands do you need to play at a certain level before you gain a relatively accurate winrate?

Thanks,

Stickner

It depends what your definition of "relatively accurate winrate" is.

It also depends on how you play. If you play very loose aggressive then you will have big winning and losing streaks and it will take many many more hands than if you play tight and only get involved in big pots with strong hands.

For example: The biggest losign streak that Ive had in the past year and a half is about 4 buy ins. Palman, who is a very good NL player but plays a vastly different style than I do, will lose 4 buy ins each session and not even blink an eye because he will build a big stack before hes doen and still come out ahead most times.

His variance is very high so it might take him 10 times as many hands as it will take me to get a good idea of true win rate.

For me, I would say its around 15000 hands or so.

Its also different for limit and NL.

Here are my vitals from PokerTracker. I have been playing the $25 max buyin NL tables on Party. I would like to move up to the next level(s) whenever I am ready. Based on my "style" how many hands do I need before I know my winrate is good enough to go to the next level?

How much tougher will my opponents be at the $50 max buyin tables? What about the $100 max buyin tables?

Total Hands: 9,263
VP$IP: 19.75
BB/100: 11.65
Went To SD%: 19.77
Won $ at SD%: 58.31
PF Raise: 7.11

Aggression factor:
Flop: 2.45
Turn: 1.24
River: 1.71
Total: 1.82

Well I think you may be too passive. My aggression nunmbers are quite a big higher than yours which is strange because I dont raise preflop nearly as much as you.

Being more aggressive is probably something you should start working on, but the rest of your numbers are very good and I think it you have $1000 or more in your bankroll, you should move up right now.

Of course, theres only so much I can tell just by looking at stats like this. It would be much easier to judge skill level if you start posting some hands.

The skill level jump between $25NL and $50 NL is probably not even detectable.
You will, however, be intimidated at first by bigger bet amounts and you will think that everyone is trying to make a move on you and bluffing you. Believe me, theyre not.

Just play the same game and dont make bad calls just because you dont want to be bluffed.

What's your BB/100? And Bankroll?

For the $25 tables your stats look a little on the weak-tight side (Vp$iP low, high W$SD, low WtSD%). Nothing drastic, just marginal.

As Ice noted - you are a bit passive, especaily on the flop.
I suspect you are losing a few BB/100 by being pushed off flops.
You need to bet out on the flop more, especially if you raised pre-flop.

As you have a high W$SD you should be betting for value more on the river. Looks like you are leaving some money on the table there.

Overall all though the numbers look fine.

If your existing BB/100 is more than 7 and you have at least $1200 i your roll, I would say go for it (the $50 tables)

And you shouldn't be asking about the play at the $100's. That sounds like you are thinking about moving up too fast - that' a good way to lose your roll. Never move up to a level until you are a solid winner at the one below...

If you want some numbers to contrast here are mine from $50 pt tables

Hands 3488
VPIP: 27.77% (I have be working on playing LAG a little more)
Went to SD%: 20.04%
Won $ at SD: 62.3%
BB/100: 10.98
Preflop raise %: 3.28%

Agression:
Preflop: .1
Postflop:1.45
Turn: 2.86
River: 1.97

Where did you get $1200 for a bankroll? That is an odd number weighing in at 24 buyins.

I got away with 10 buyins when I started playing $100 NL but 15-20 is probably more safe (and I'm a pretty tight player with low variance anyways).

$1000 is fine but I find those tables have a very high variance (I once had a 28 buy-in downswing on them) so I'd suggest adding a little on for comfort zone when you're first moving up.

Thanks for the advice... To answer a few of your questions:

What's your BB/100? And Bankroll?
11.65 PTBB/100 $1385.00

As Ice noted - you are a bit passive, especaily on the flop.
I suspect you are losing a few BB/100 by being pushed off flops.
You need to bet out on the flop more, especially if you raised pre-flop.

What kind of aggression factor on the flop should I be looking for? My aggresion factor on the flop is currently 2.45. How much higher should I try to get it.

And you shouldn't be asking about the play at the $100's. That sounds like you are thinking about moving up too fast - that' a good way to lose your roll. Never move up to a level until you are a solid winner at the one below...

I don't want to move too fast. Not at all. I was just curious as to how much better the play is at the higher levels.

Thanks again for your help!

I'm playing on the $10 tables and my stats are

VPIP: 16.81%
Went to SD%: 22.57%
Won $ at SD: 50.24%
BB/100PT: 17.02
Pre flop raise%: 4.04%

Aggression
flop: 3.78
turn :3.05
river: 3.29

Looks overly aggressive post flop but it is working for me at the lower limits as you can see by the BB/100

Thats not overly agressive. Its much more aggressive than most people but its aboiut where you should be.

My river aggression is a little lower, but my flop aggression is even higher than yours. Its over 5.

Very nice numbers

Thanks for that Iceman. Sometimes it's hard to know where you are regarding aggression. I've been working on being more aggressive and it is paying dividends. Seems to be an easy concept to understand but hard to put into practice with your hard earned...