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Digging a little deeper into postflop aggression

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Digging a little deeper into postflop aggression

Postby k3nt » Fri May 13, 2005 9:58 pm

Postflop aggression on PT is defined as

(Raise % + Bet %) / Call %

In other words, the postflop aggression number is actually a simplifying number that measures the ratio of several things. What I would really like to see is the numbers before the simplification.

Here's why this interests me. I can get my postflop aggression up in two ways: bet and raise more, or fold more (call less). I'm wondering which of those the top players here do.

Here are my stats over 11,000 hands (all rounded to the nearest %)

On each street, poker tracker lists your action percentages in order from most aggressive to least aggressive:

Raise / Bet / Call / Check / Fold:

FLOP
7% / 23% / 9% / 31% / 29% --> Aggression 3.30

TURN
4% / 28% / 13% / 34% / 19% --> Aggression 2.54

RIVER
3% / 29% / 15% / 31% / 22% --> Aggression 2.83

Also, I "fold to a river bet" just over 65% of the time. How do other people's numbers compare?

I'm not sure if this sort of number comparing would be useful -- but it might.

Would anybody else care to share their numbers? It might be very educational. For instance, Iceman, you said your aggression on the flop is over 5: is that because you're betting and raising way more than my 30% of flops, or because you're calling way fewer than my 9%?

Thanks in advance to anybody who wants to share their numbers!!
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Postby Tiburon » Sat May 14, 2005 10:19 am

Kent--

I just datamined my NL play and here are my numbers:

Street Raise/Bet/Call/Check/Fold
FLOP 3.43% / 32.26% / 15.82% / 23.73% / 18.42%--->2.26

...so, I guess I'm aggressing on 35.69% of flops,

TURN 3.13% / 33.40% / 15.82% / 24.41%/ 16.21%--->2.31

...36.53% of turns,

RIVER 3.53% / 34.94% / 8.65% / 23.72% / 22.44%--->4.44

...and 38.47% of rivers.

My "Fold to River Bet" is 78.08%.

I actually think there is a way (that I'm not really sure of) to better measure aggression post-flop. If some donkey sits and throws out a min-bet or min-raise on every flop out of position, does that make donkey-boy as aggressive as we are? I think it's more of the limitations of PokerTracker (don't read into that--it's the best tool in the world) in that the software, and I'm sure Pat will back me up, was written primarily for limit holdem.

Maybe we could figure out a true aggressiveness formula for NL? Maybe Pat could implement it in Tracker!

Let's get the discussion started!
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Postby Tiburon » Sat May 14, 2005 11:06 am

You see, for me, I am generally the most aggressive player at a table, and I take down many pots on the flop with a bet. I really don't get the opportunity to raise many pots, especially on the flop. Also, if I just smooth call the flop, you should be worried--I'm either drawing to a monster or I'm trapping with one.

I'd like to see who among the community can dig REAL deep into Tracker (SQL query?) to put a real metric on NL aggression.

And a related question about the latest autorate:

For someone to be an Ultra-Aggressor, their flop aggression must be >2.75, their turn >1.70, and their river > 1.70. My numbers flip the other way. My flop (as shown above) aggression is lowest, rising to 4.44 on the river. That could be a measure of tightness and aggressiveness in and of itself, that a player is more aggressive on later streets with what can be perceived as better, higher quality hands.
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Postby APerfect10 » Sat May 14, 2005 11:38 am

For someone to be an Ultra-Aggressor, their flop aggression must be >2.75, their turn >1.70, and their river > 1.70. My numbers flip the other way. My flop (as shown above) aggression is lowest, rising to 4.44 on the river. That could be a measure of tightness and aggressiveness in and of itself, that a player is more aggressive on later streets with what can be perceived as better, higher quality hands.

Your flop aggression should be the greatest and it should slowly get less on each street. There are several factors that go into this:

1. Your best opportunity to steal pots is on the flop. Bet your draws, take the pot down right here. You really should be betting the most frequently on the flop. With a strong hand, bet hard or raise to push out drawing hands.

2. Playing TPTK you will obviously bet the flop and most likely the turn; however, you probably should not be betting the river (unless you are up against a SD Muppet).

3. On the turn and river, the majority of the time you have a strong hand but not the absolute nuts therefore you need to slow down especially when facing heavy action from a good opponent. Ie) Flush on river, you bet, get raised, now you want to more than likely call rather than reraise

Most neutral/passives only bet when they have a made hand or a strong hand hence their aggression goes up on each street as they are more of a lock to win therefore they bet harder. This is definately a passive/neutral move not an aggressive move.

There are literally a ton of reasons why your aggression should go down slightly on each street. I do not have the time to get too far in depth; however, this should touch the tip of the issue...
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Postby Tiburon » Sat May 14, 2005 11:46 am

Understood. I don't feel that I'm passive with a flop aggression rating of 2.26, but I understand your point very well, and it makes great sense.

I think for me, playing $25 and $50 NL on Stars, my image as a TAG helps me greatly in taking down many pots on the flop, and just last night I took down three pots uncontested with a river bet.

What do you think about the idea of devising a better post-flop aggression system for NL?
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Postby APerfect10 » Sat May 14, 2005 12:00 pm

I think the current PFA measure is completely fine.

Awhile back there was a discussion on the poker tracker forums regarding this topic. I suggest reading because it is fairly similar...
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Postby excession » Sun May 15, 2005 12:52 am

Image

PFA is fine for analysing 'passivity' if by that you mean likelihhod of caling as against bet/raising.

The liklihood of folding when bet at (or of not betting when checked to) can then be called 'weak-tight'.

The porblem is that when playing you use aggression to, say, check a string hand in the expectation of being bet back at.

Now there is some correlation between high PFA and this in practice, but there are also players who check/fold 90% of flops and bet/raise 10% and are therefore shown as highly 'aggressive'.

You can of course manually pull up the above stats for a given player in 15 seconds or so if you have the main PT window open but minmised. It's a case of the overlays needing to catch up with our needs.

The idea of some % stat showing the ratio bets/raises to say checks/folds would be nice think.

I'd would also like to know folded at river % for an opponent if I'm going to run a big river bluff (or indeed am value betting)
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Postby k3nt » Sun May 15, 2005 11:25 am

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Postby Tiburon » Sun May 15, 2005 1:09 pm

"...Every time you cold call, god kills a puppy."
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Postby J L Fiasco » Mon May 16, 2005 11:38 pm

Here are my numbers. Sample size is 10 110 hands.

Poss. Actions//Raise//Bet//Call//Check//Fold//Aggression

Flop//3,316//5.61//15.89//6.24//35.37//28.08//3.44
Turn//1,480//5.95//25.07//9.80//27.97//18.51//3.17
River//798//3.88//19.55//10.15//34.71//17.29//2.31

Total Aggression Factor is: 3.14

Folded on a river bet is at: 67%

These numbers surprised me as I felt I bet more after the flop than only 15% of the time. Seems to be lots of checking going on, but i do play lots of suited Aces (possible leak but PT shows most of them as winners so not worried about it yet). I'll limp with small pocket pairs most of the time as well. The way I play these suited Aces (for the flush) and small PP (for trips) is that if I don't hit the flop, it's usualy check/fold. Might account for all that checking? It's worth looking in too.
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Postby Aisthesis » Tue May 17, 2005 4:39 am

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Postby k3nt » Tue May 17, 2005 8:37 am

Aisthesis: is your 4.93 aggression on the flop 25 bet/raise vs 5 call, or is it 35 bet/raise vs 7 call, or 45/9, or what?

Here are the flop numbers reported so far (%s rounded):

Bet% + raise % / Call % --> Aggression

Kent: 30/9 --> 3.30
Tiburon: 36/16 --> 2.26
excession: 33/7 --> 4.47
J L Fiasco: 21.5 / 6 --> 3.44

Now let's check these out.

It looks like Fiasco and I have a similar aggression factor on the flop, but we're not actually playing similarly at all.

Tiburon's PFA number is the lowest, but he's betting and raising the most flops. He calls way more than anybody else.

Excession has the highest PFA number, but he's betting fewer flops than Tiburon -- and calling more than Fiasco.

More numbers! More numbers! C'mon ice kenny MG and the rest of y'all, please share. (Unless this feels like private information to you guys?)
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Postby excession » Tue May 17, 2005 10:08 am

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Postby bkholdem » Tue May 17, 2005 4:19 pm

Here are my numbers. At present I have identified area's of improvement being
1. loosening up preflop
2. increasing my agression on the river

I would appreciate feedback on these things as well as other things people notice or feel it would be helpful for me to look more closely at.

player actions/poss. actions/ Raise% / Bet%/call% /check% / fold% / Agression factor
pre-flop /17,152 / 4.09 / 0.00 / 8.62 / 5.97 / 81.31
flop / 3,517 / 4.46 / 15.98 / 5.00 / 42.85/ 31.70 / 4.09
turn / 1,525 / 5.51 / 18.49 / 7.28 / 43.08 / 25.64 / 3.30
river / 773 / 2.07 / 18.37 / 12.68 / 47.99 / 18.89 / 1.61

total agression 3.23

I know my flop agression number is lower than most but considering how tight I have been playing (11.86 % vol put $ in pot) it's pretty high as a percentage of the hands I have been playing.
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Postby Tiburon » Wed May 18, 2005 4:31 pm

Christ--I am weak-tight...I didn't realize that I cold call so much on the flop (not that 16% is a lot). I wonder what that really represents--I guess I go weak-tight with a chance to play a little longer:

1) Am I getting bet into by an earlier position player and calling with a big draw or to build a pot?
2) Am I slow playing frequently?

I don't know either way, but I'm winning :D

That's why this forum is good--it teaches me about things I could do better. Great analysis, and keep the numbers coming!
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