Stars 6-max 2/4NL. I play an extremely loose-aggressive game, to the point where my opponents usually think I'm an all-out maniac. I try to avoid showdowns at all costs to prevent giving out any info, and this is a fairly typical hand that I get involved in. By the turn, I was pretty sure he had QJ. My question is this: do you think QJ will fold to my all-in often enough on the river for the bet to be profitable? Keep in mind that I have only been at this table for 1-2 orbits, but I've already made several big bets. No showdowns yet.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $4 BB (5 handed)

SB ($174.20)
BB ($95)
Hero ($455)
MP ($219.85)
Button ($348.80)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with , .
Hero raises to $12, MP calls $12, Button calls $12, SB calls $10, 1 fold.

Flop: ($52) , , (4 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $28, MP folds, Button calls $28, SB calls $28.

Turn: ($136) (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $76, Button calls $76, SB folds.

River: ($288) (2 players)
Hero bets $339 (All-In)

Final Pot: $627

He's folding QJ everytime. How could he call that river bet with 2nd pair on board. The problem is if he holds a set or two pair

First thing to say:

WOW.


Is that aggressive style common in the higher stakes? In the NL$25 where the calling stations are always present I think I dont do that. There was a very interesting thread about "the Doyle Brunson move" and I posted a few hands that didnt end up well because of calling stations.

I guess there are fewer CSs at NL$400, but i also think that this move would be extremely good for a TAG, not for a maniac which was the personality you assumed for this specific table. I dont think that in that stake, an eagle is called more than 20-25% of times by QJ. And it´s much. On the other hand, I might call with QJ this all in from a maniac. I am not so sure it is a good call, though - I am folding to river bets only 50% of times and I know this is big LEAK; I am working on that. Last month folded to river bet was only 41%- .

That is my humble contribution. Let´s wait to see what the pros think.


AlexMR

Oh, Sorry.

I thought villain had two pairs. In this scenario I think villain should fold always unless you have the CS situation. Anyway, it is a better move when you are playing Tight.


Later....



AlexMR

I like it. I think the river bet is EV in it self. I think he has KJ or QJ. If he folds you have a big stack and you can really start bullying the table.

And if you are called: metagame (but only if you dont tilt because he has something like AJ or 55).

Was button Halo? Was this the hand were he got his big stack? If it was, this hand set up the QQ vs 74 hand.

Kalle,

This was a different session than the afternoon one where we sat together. I did take metagame into account, as I do on all my bluffs (I make it a point to show a lot of them as well). Button, by the way, was an unknown, but it later turned out he was a bit of a calling station.

I would bet the river here as well...but like drogga I would bet smaller. If he's going to call $125 then he's gonna call that all-in too.

It just saves you money if he calls, and in my opinon, that size bet acheives the same result.